SUMMER IS FAR FROM OVER

The heat is back in full force as we head into the last days of July and early August as a stubborn ridge in the jet stream refuses to budge. We will be on the eastern side of that ridge which likely keeps the worst of the heat just to the west, but either way above normal temperatures are certainly coming in.

Analogs (above) show a greater than 80% chance for above normal temperatures in the period July 30-August 2, and this will likely continue well into the first full week of August.

The Climate Prediction Center has already circled our area in a "Slight Risk" for extreme heat August 4-5. The pattern looks to be locked for quite a while here across the Midwest. Summer is certainly far from over.

In the short term, this weekend is a hot one for sure. We likely maintain upper 80s for the forseeable future, and this forecast above has a good chance of going higher later in the period (likely July 31 onward) as confidence increases in the higher temperatures. Either way, the heat is here and is settling in for a while.

The ridge is really not breaking down over the west coast, and this will continue to allow the heat to build. This is also a major concern for the active wild fires across the western US. They will continue to get worse so anticipate some smoky skies and potentially reduced air quality in the weeks ahead as this upper air pattern takes that smoke and sends it right into the Midwest.

The animation above off the European Ensemble continues that ridge well into August, stopping August 7 with no major change in sight.

Dozens of wildfires are ongoing already across the Pacific Northwest and this will likely become more of a national news story in the weeks ahead as very little rain, very low humidity and hot temperatures create dangerous fire conditions. Our weather and heat coming is directly because of the same ridging that is allowing these wildfires to foster.

In terms of rainfall, nothing organized is really expected in the coming days. The exception is around the time of this posting - early Sunday a round of thunderstorms will be possible that may produce some storng wind gusts and locally heavy rain. Aside from this, and an isolated storm with the heating of the day Sunday afternoon, not a lot to get exited for rain wise.

Stay cool friends! Have a great rest of the weekend,

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart