CALLING A TIME OUT...
Finally, we got some nice rains over the weekend but we paid the price with another round of severe weather. Sunday's storms comprised the third major severe weather event of the year locally, The others occurred March 31st and April 4th. Combined, 1,677 severe weather reports involving, tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds were filed from those outbreaks across the central U.S. Of those, 202 were tornado reports, 637 damaging winds, and 838 large hail. Here's the breakdown of the three outbreaks.
March 31st
April 4th
May 7th
In Iowa alone, 66 severe thunderstorm warnings were issued Sunday. That's the most so far this year. There's only 99 counties in the state.
March 31st was the years big tornado day to date with 31 tornado warnings issued. That's 23 more than any other day.
Climatologically, the peak of the severe weather season is currently centered over Oklahoma and N. Texas.
We don't reach our peak in the central Midwest until early to mid June. In other words we are way ahead of schedule. My experience is that when it's your year, (which it has been so far), it's your year. In other words, when severe weather opportunities present themselves they reach fruition and over-produce. In lean years things rarely line-up and even when they do, some ingredients end up missing limiting coverage and impacts. There's nothing scientific about that, it's just a personal observation. I guess we'll see where things go in the next 6-8 weeks as we head for peak season.
By the way, over the weekend this wet storm dumped 1-4 inches of rain over all my area. 2-3 inch amounts were common. In Burlington, the 3 day period Saturday through Monday produced 2.64 inches which is almost as much as fell in the previous 65 days (2.81 inches). Yea for you southeast Iowa and WC Illinois, you needed it.
Below you can see the 72 hour Doppler estimates of rainfall totals ending Monday. Le Claire, Iowa had more than 4 inches. much of it falling Sunday.
CONSIDER A STAY AT ONE OF THE MOST UNIQUE ACCOMMODATIONS IN THE MIDWEST...
HIGH, DRY, AND NICE...
The next few days, high pressure and relatively dry air will create mainly dry conditions with pleasant temperatures. Highs the next few days should warm into the mid 70s to low 80s. The IDSS point forecast from the NWS shows the warming over the next few days in Davenport. Notice too that winds increase as the week goes on allowing moisture to get back in the pattern. Dew Points could reach into the mid 60s Friday and Saturday.
A stray shower is possible Thursday but forcing appears weak until Friday and Saturday when a potent short wave emerges from the Rockies. It brings another warm front into play to start the weekend. Warm fronts in May are often a harbinger of potential severe weather. Saturday is currently under scrutiny for that concern.
Depending on how the synoptic pattern evolves, more generous rains are also possible in some part of the central Midwest, (especially if we get into thunderstorms which seems likely at some point). The Weather Prediction Center indicates this for rainfall ending Sunday night. This is obviously a broad brush approach, significantly higher amounts could occur where active thunderstorm tracks evolve. It's far too early to pin point where that will be.
Anyway, we've called a time out from active weather for now. All things considered, the next 2-3 days should be mild and dry. Just what the doctor ordered. Roll weather...TS
