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CRACK THAT WHIP...

SHAKE IT UP BABY, PLEASE HELP TSWAILS OUT!

MORE FUN THAN EATING PUDDING... 361 of you fine folks have made a voluntary $12 dollar donation to TSwails.com. I still need the support of 39 more of you to keep things going. Thanks to your generous donations to date, we are well on our way and with just a little more help we'll achieve our goal. All I'm asking is that if you enjoy the site and see value in it, please consider a voluntary subscription. I'm asking $12.00 dollars for a year. That's $1 dollar a month or 3 cents a blog if you consider the fact there were 450 posts issued over the past year. The site requires a significant commitment of time and resources and every donation, whatever the size is deeply appreciated. I just need a little help to cover the expenses. Click on the link below if you can assist or or need additional information. I thank you for your support and consideration.

DRY PATTERN RETURNS

Back in October the rain machine was up and running again after a very dry summer in the northern half of my area. Monthly rain totals of 3-5 inches were common around the region

However, since October 30th the spigot has shut down with measurable rain falling in the Quad Cities on just 3 of the past 18 days. We even had a stretch where we went 11 consecutive days with nothing in the bucket. Over that period deficits in my area of 0.50 to 1.25 inches have developed.

Today's models are not painting a promising picture for precipitation either with Tuesday's GFS showing little if any rain or snow over the next 16 days (out to December 2nd). What meager amounts do show up in the south occur early in the day along a fast moving cold front.

These are the GFS 16 day precipitation departures. Under high pressure much of the country is bone dry.

Over the 16 day period, the GFS shows these specific precipitation deficits developing. Add that to the previous 18 days and there is an overwhelming trend towards dryness over the central Midwest.

The EURO in its 15 day departures is in good agreement with the GFS showing a very dry look over much of the nation, including the central U.S.

I personally am concerned about the overall dryness lasting through much of the winter. Things can turn around in a hurry but moderate La Nina's are known for producing periods of strong westerly winds that limit moisture and storminess, especially south of the mean jet stream track. Even with a buckle the NW flow is moisture starved. I'm thinking at some point we break this cycle and move into a more favorable pattern for precipitation. However, as long as this set-up remains intact were going to struggle to get wet and we'll continue to see significant swings in temperature like we are currently experiencing. I do not like this look. It needs to change in the next two weeks!


On the topic of temperatures, we are back on the roller coaster. Early Wednesday some scattered light showers are expected to be ongoing in my southern counties driven by a seasonal cold front. Early day temperatures near and southeast of the Quad Cities will start mild in the 50s. It will be a different story to the NW where NW winds will already have readings in the 40s where they should hold pretty steady all day long. As the morning progresses the cold air engulfs all of my area and by nightfall Wednesday everyone is looking at 40s which transition into 20s Wednesday night. Come Thursday morning readings should be 20-25 degrees colder than just 24 hours earlier.

Thursday promises to be well below normal with highs in the mid to upper 30s with clouds gradually eroding from SW to NW during the day. That would set us up for good viewing conditions of a nearly full lunar eclipse Thursday night. For you night owls who choose to stay up and watch, the Earth's shadow will cover up all but a small sliver of the moon around 3:00am. A red tinge is also anticipated that should add a nice touch to the overall look!

THE WEEKEND:

Temperatures remain chilly Friday but return flow does get underway and by Saturday and Sunday the roller coaster is going back up with highs expected to climb into the 50s (above normal). Dry weather should make it a good weekend to rake leaves or put up some Christmas lights. I found mine today.


THE WASHINGTON, ILLINOIS TORNADO

It was 8 years ago today that the strongest November tornado in Illinois history struck the town of Washington near Peoria. Storm chaser Nick Nolte took this stunning picture of the twister near Long Point. It was on the ground for 46 miles.

Washington, Illinois as the tornado approaches.

The environment was exceptional unstable, especially considering the late date, (November 17, 2013). A high risk threat of significant severe weather was issued by the Storm Prediction Center even before the sun rose.

The Washington tornado was also unusual that it touched down at 10:59am and was on the ground until 11:47am. Most strong tornadoes occur between 4 and 6pm, closer to peak heating during spring. This long tracked violent storm produced winds of 190 making it a strong EF4, just short of the necessary 200 mph winds to be classified EF5.

You can see 136 tornado reports in red. In all 757 reports of severe weather were received.

3 deaths were reported in Washington along with 125 injuries. Damage was estimated near 100 million dollars.

Considering the time of year the tornadoes occurred and the scope and intensity of the outbreak (4th largest ever in Illinois), I believe this ranks near the top as one of the most remarkable natural disasters in state history.


On that note, I leave your with a forecast that's far from perfect but certainly much more peaceful than 8 year ago. Outside of the ups and downs in temperatures through the weekend, there's not much exciting in the short term forecast. Thanks for your time and if you appreciate the site please consider a donation by clicking the link below. The future of TSwails is in your kind and caring hands. Roll weather...TS



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