DROUGHT RETURNS, SEND RAIN!

terryswails1
2 minutes ago
4 min read

The latest drought monitor is in and, not surprisingly, drought conditions have returned to parts of my area. While the entire region is abnormally dry, moderate drought is now a thing in much of the area NE of the Quad Cities in Illinois. Parts of WC Illinois are also nearing that threshold. 3 months ago only 5 percent of the Midwest was in any sort of drought category, now that figure has climbed to 35 percent, not far from what was seen last year at this time.

Just two months ago, only spotty parts of the Midwest had abnormally dry conditions. Now, in the side by side, look how dramatically conditions have declined over eastern Iowa and points southeast since August.

Around August 10th, the rain machine broke down, with little if any since the start of September. From August 31st to October 3rd (a period of 34 days), just .34 inches of rain has fallen at the NWS in Davenport. Only 5 days have had measurable rain, with not a single day with more than .09 inches.

September really put the hammer down, with the majority of my area seeing 10-25 percent of its normal precipitation. As I mentioned yesterday, Moline had its 6th driest September with .71 inches. Much of the surrounding area was 25 to 50 percent of normal.

Overall, crops are in fine shape and the harvest is progressing rapidly due to the warm, dry conditions. While the harvest looks good, yields may be cut a bit from previous expectations, as you can see in the USDA projections for corn. The crop has gone from about 85% in good to excellent condition in mid-August to roughly 70% now.

Corn

Beans have also tailed off similarly. Even so, it should be a bountiful crop for many a farmer.

Short term, we remain dry through Sunday under the dominance of a persistent thermal ridge. However, there is some optimism that a front will reach the region Monday with enough moisture and forcing to produce a band of showers and storms along a slow moving boundary. For a couple of days now, both the EURO and GFS have been touting this trend. Today's data remains consistent, allowing higher confidence that some meaningful rain could indeed fall, although it looks spotty. Due to the longevity of the dry pattern, I'm still a bit leery that models are overzealous with amounts, but I'm feeling somewhat better about chances than I was yesterday. Here's what guidance is showing for rain totals late Sunday night through Monday night. Fingers crossed.

The EURO

The GFS

By the way, "the climate guru" Steve Gottschalk tells me his records indicate that if the full moon comes during the first 10 days of October, there is an 84 percent chance of rain. This year, the full moon (harvest moon) occurs Monday the 6th at 11:48 pm. It will also be a supermoon, meaning it will be closer to earth, extra bright, and larger. You go moon!

PLAN A VISIT TO MY 5 STAR GALENA AIRBNB

My 5-STAR AIRBNB just outside of Galena still has some fall openings. All of our ratings are 5 star! We take pride in the amenities and the cleanliness. If you book now, we'll take off $200, and we can eliminate AIRBNB fees and additional costs that will save you big bucks. Other discounts apply. Call or text Carolyn at 563-676-3320 for our best deal of summer. See more at https://www.littlewhitechurchgalena.com/

A TOASTY WEEKEND AHEAD...

The next 3 days, sunshine and dry air will continue to hold sway, ensuring that temperatures remain well above normal through Sunday, perhaps even Monday in the southeast. With the antecedent dryness of soils, chances are temperatures may over perform, and we should be close to records, if not even breaking one.

For the most part, highs Friday through Sunday should be in the range of 87 to 91. Below, you can see the number of times highs have reached 85 or higher during October in the Quad Cities. The average per year is only 0.79 days, with records going back 155 years. You can see after the 5th, 85 or higher is rare, especially after the 15th. (Only 14 of 155 years have they hit 85 after the 15th). Only 4 out of 155 after the 18th.

That means you better enjoy what's coming up because it could be many months before we see what's ahead of us this weekend again. Here's the NWS hour by hour forecast for Davenport Friday and Saturday. Highs of 90 and 91 are shown. Fortunately, dew points remain near 60 or below, which will keep conditions tolerable despite the warmth.

With the arrival of rain chances Monday, we can also expect a change to more seasonal temperatures. You can see the anticipated dip into the 60s Wednesday and Thursday of next week on both the EURO and GFS. However, the cool air is progressive and warmth should rebound quickly towards next weekend. In fact, both models indicate a high or two above 85, which by then as I've shown you is a tough feat to accomplish.

The EURO