DOWN GOES DECEMBER...

terryswails1
Dec 31, 2025
4 min read

So here it is, the last day of December, and what a strange month it's been. Temperatures alone have been all over the board, with 2 morning lows of 8 below and 2 days with highs of 50. Typically, the month gets colder as it progresses. Not this year, with the first half of December averaging 13.6 degrees below normal. Then came the big flip and the second half of the month averaged 7.9 degrees above normal. Manic to say the least.

Here's the actual breakdown of the individual days at the NWS office in Davenport through the 29th. I've highlighted the daily departures above and below. In the end, 16 days were below normal and 13 above. At last check the average temperature with a day to go was 24.1 degrees, which is still 3.6 below normal, but a huge recovery from the -13.6 degree hole we dug the first 15 days.

The month started out with a snow depth of 7 inches and as of the 8th was at its highest depth of 8 inches. Things were looking promising for a white Christmas, but by the 18th it was down to a trace where it remains today. Another brown Christmas.

The last few hours of the month will be dominated by a weak clipper, shown diving southeast into the northern Plains Tuesday night. It is weak on moisture and dynamics, however there should be enough warm advection to generate some clouds and perhaps a brief period of light snow or flurries in the far northeast.

Recent trends take the snow band just far enough northeast to keep anything more than a dusting out of my area. Here's what models indicate for totals.

The EURO

The 3K NAM

The HRRR

The GFS

The track of the system will also pull some mild air and highs should crack freezing in all areas ranging from 33 north to 41 south. A pretty solid way to close out the year.

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Behind the system, northwest flow and a polar high pressure will see to it that our air mass comes off the snow cover to our north, hindering any serious warm up through Sunday. Overall, highs should remain close to normal until Monday, when another push of mild Pacific air makes a run at the Midwest, producing at least a week-long stretch of highs in the 30s and 40s.

As with our recent bout of warmth around Christmas, convection has fired in an area of the tropical Pacific where strong vertical velocity is found. It's quite evident around Indonesia below.

This is expected to drive the WPO (western Pacific Oscillation) into a positive phase through the 10th of January, leading to this next round of mild weather. However, it turns negative towards mid-month and the control of the EURO goes extremely negative the last 10 days of January. That means a powerful ridge builds in the central Pacific.

Add to that these additional teleconnections starting mid-January, and you have some strong support for what could be several Arctic intrusions. Here's the EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation), the AO (Arctic Oscillation), and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). All are shown dipping well into negative territory. Such amplitude is strong evidence of cold air entering the pattern for the second half of January and maybe the first part of February.

The EPO

The AO

The NAO

The control is really bullish on today's weeklies showing a strong vortex over central Canada forcing cold into the heart of the nation January 23rd.

Towards the end of January, it sticks a robust, 1055mb high over WC Canada that looks very imposing.

January 11th-February 12th the EURO control shows widespread temperature departures of 8–12 degrees below normal from Iowa across the Ohio Valley. To be clear, that's the average daily temperature departure for 30 days.

Snowfall is much harder than cold to pinpoint, but in this case the control has it widespread from the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. That doesn't make it right, but it's a very aggressive run for snow.

To be clear, we are roughly 2 weeks out before this pattern would settle in (if indeed it does). Nothing is set in stone, but from my perspective there is some strong evidence we are far from done with winter despite what's coming in the next 10 days or so. Cold and potentially some snow is trending in the long range. The only teleconnection that is not pointed that way yet is the MJO. It's shown in what is known as the null phase, indicating minimal amplitude and no strong thermal analogs hot or cold. To be honest, even when it was in the cold phases in December it didn't live up to expectations so it may not even matter.

I will leave the long range part of the forecast, still qualified as low confidence due to the distance. That said, I feel more confident about it than yesterday and the day before that. It's something I will be closely watching in coming days to see if consistency remains intact. Meantime, Happy New Year a few hours early. Roll weather...TS