FALLS FINEST...
After a 5 day string of sub-par weather we were back on our game Monday. The sun was out in full force and winds were down. Temperatures were "cool" but not all that far from normal. It was a keeper.
It all comes after one of the wettest periods of the past 6 months here in the central Midwest. The recent big slow moving system dumped 1-4" of rain over the majority of the region. The only place to come up short was the far south where some totals failed to reach 1/2 inch. That was certainly the exception to the rule though, especially to the north of I-80 where a real soaker was observed. As you can see in the comparison of rain vs. drought, much of that heavy rain fell where it was desperately needed,
These are the 7 day observed rainfall totals showing the Midwest at the epicenter of the storm.
In some parts of EC Iowa and NW Illinois the 7 day totals were 400 percent of the mean. That's impressive and just what the doctor ordered.
With all the clouds and wet weather around, temperatures over the past week were well below normal, especially highs.
I'm happy to say we've got another fine day to enjoy Tuesday before some changes work into the forecast midweek. After a cool start Tuesday morning that produces some frost on the pumpkins, southwest winds will pump mild air back into the region during the afternoon. Highs are likely to pop into the low to mid 60s under mostly sunny skies. Very pleasant!
Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday as a clipper type system dives in from the northwest. It's fairly compact and short on moisture but the dynamics are there for at least some scattered light showers. The EURO is the most aggressive with rain spitting out amounts up to 1/3 inch.
The GFS is under 1/10th of an inch in all locations. We should be able to fine tune the amounts with Wednesday's new guidance. I suspect the EURO is overdone on the rain.
Despite more clouds and the threat of afternoon showers, highs Wednesday remain mild in the low to mid 60s. On the backside of the system, a few wrap around showers are possible Thursday but they look very isolated and light. With winds swinging back to a northerly direction highs will dip into the upper 50s to low 60s.
The interruption to cooler weather should only be temporary as return flow ahead of another clipper gets highs back into the low to mid 60s Friday and Saturday. After a dry frontal passage, slightly cooler conditions are expected Sunday with highs back in the upper 50s north to near 60 south.
You might be noticing a trend here and that is the progressive nature of the pattern. Fronts are starting to move along now at a pretty good clip allowing these minor ups and downs. However, their speed limits moisture and overall little rain is likely until the middle of next week.
There are long term indications that a more significant storm sets up the second half of next week. Here's the full latitude trough that is indicated over the central Rockies. That deep SW flow is likely to tap into rich moisture. It will also create a strong baroclinic boundary and low level jet.
In fact, the EURO control shows PWAT's (available water vapor), reaching 2 inches over SE Iowa October 27th.
That is nearly 4 times more than normal late October values.
The EURO cranks out widespread 2"+ rain totals.
The storm also introduces some cold air that could bring a healthy chill to the Midwest around Halloween.
This is all very preliminary and involves phasing of jet streams and energy, a challenge models struggle with at this distance. Teleconnections do point to a respectable storm late next week but there are many details to resolve. This comes at a time that models have been advertising a healthy shot of cold air for nearly a week. We shall see. Roll weather...TS
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