FINALLY, SOME PAYDIRT...

Yes Virginia, that was rain we saw Tuesday. It didn't amount to much, in some cases no more than a trace. But it was accompanied by thunder and lightning, especially across the south. While this event was no more than a tease, really not even a dust settler, it is a harbinger of things to come. More in that in a bit.

We've been highlighting Cedar Rapids and its inability to get rain the past 7 weeks. Once again, Tuesday's rain at the Eastern Iowa Airport was paltry, but it was enough to measure at .01". That is only the second time since August 31st that measurable rain has been recorded. The total in Cedar Rapids the past 53 days (now going on 54) sits at .06".

Below, you can see an area in EC Iowa, where there are places approaching 60 days with rain totals less than 1/10th of an inch. That is so hard to do.

TURNING THE TIDE...

So, after another day of dry but cooler weather Wednesday, all of a sudden the pattern seems ripe for several storm systems that have the potential to produce appreciable rains. Based on current timing, the first wave of energy arrives Thursday night and is tied to a short wave rippling through the Midwest. The disturbance Wednesday night is centered over Idaho at 500mb.

By the time the energy reaches eastern Iowa, a surface low rides northeast along a trough extending through the heart of my area. Precipitation blossoms early Thursday evening and spreads across the Mississippi River.

Enough instability is evident for embedded thunderstorms, and you can see the EURO is bullish on their development with a 6-hour lightning flash rate that looks like this from 7pm -1:00am Thursday night.

Here's some rain totals suggested by various models from this event.

The GFS

The EURO

The Canadian GEM

In advance of the system, temperatures will be cooler than in recent days with highs returning to the range of 63-68 Wednesday and 60-65 Thursday, where they will hold through Friday That's still several degrees above normal, so nothing to complain about in that regard.

This weekend, a major fall through is set to dig into the west, promoting a building ridge over the Midwest. This process instigates another warm up ahead of a healthy looking storm just ahead of Halloween. Look at that pressure gradient that could drive wind gusts into the range of 30-40 mph early next week.

The strong SW winds will send highs into the upper 70s to low 80s next Tuesday afternoon, not too far from the existing records.

Additionally, moisture steadily increases with water vapor, shown in the 1.30 to 1.60" threshold.

With the arrival of a slow moving cold front, the forcing necessary for a new round of showers and storms comes into play next Tuesday night and could linger into Wednesday and perhaps early portions of Halloween Day. Depending on the placement of a low pressure wave and heating, some stronger storms are something to watch for Tuesday night and Wednesday, the day before Halloween. How eerie is that? Look at the front lighting up on the EURO next Tuesday night.

The big story though is the real prospect of beneficial rains in both the week 1 and week 2 periods. Notice how the Climate Prediction Center shows above normal precipitation in both its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. It's been several moons since we've seen that.

Along with the wetter pattern, the MJO sure looks as though it's going to make a swing through the colder phases of 7, 8, and 1 in early November. That would imply our first taste of wintry temperatures. I doubt if it locks in for long, but in a transitional way it comes and goes in waves. I do think by then we have seen the end of these consistent temperatures in the 60s, 70s, and 80s.

The EURO weekly control going out to December 7th shows this for total rainfall the next 46 days. Generous!

The departures across my area are 2–4 inches above normal if guidance is correct.

The period around Thanksgiving currently looks cold. The weekly control shows these temperature departures, Thanksgiving Day.

The weekly ensemble means indicate this for snowfall between now and December 7th. The majority of this is shown falling in my area in late November, for what it's worth 4–5 weeks from now. Again, the speculative nature of a model 4–6 weeks in advance makes the output low confidence. If nothing else, here's hoping the general idea of the temperature and precipitation trends shown are in the ballpark!

If nothing else, our weather seems to be moving out of this dormant Indian Summer phase that's dominated since the end of August. I'm fine with that. Happy hump day and roll weather...TS.

PEOPLE LOVE IT. OUR AIRBNB IS A MOST LOVED GUEST FAVORITE!

ANOTHER 5-STAR REVIEW....thanks Myriam

AIRBNB has rated my renovated church in Galena A GUEST FAVORITE, A MOST LOVED home according to visitors. Check out some of our reviews and get in on the flexible deals we have available below.

Christa-Monument, Colorado

The Little White Church is amazing!!!! Pictures do not do it justice. I would absolutely recommend it to my friends and family. It is just so unique. Carolyn is an amazing host and super responsive. I would give our experience 6 out of 5 stars if I could.

Phillip-Queensland, Australia

Amazing and thoughtful renovation. Stayed in a piece of history. Great location and modern amenities. Would stay again!

Jill

The Little White Church is beautiful. The decorations are perfect, and it was redone with impeccable taste. Carolyn was a great host.

Brent

Such a gem. Relaxing in the countryside in a historic church that was beautifully decorated and recently renovated was exactly what we experienced. Everyone loved our stay, and we will be back!!!

Leigh

Beautiful and unique. We were all captivated by the adorable chapel turned AIRBNB

Jenny-Frisco, Texas

It was a magical place for our family to celebrate Christmas!

Kelly

What a gem! The Little White Church exceeded our expectations. It was the perfect spot to meet up with another couple to relax and explore nearby Galena. We enjoyed the beautiful great room with its fireplace and amazing views of the rolling countryside. (The photos simply can't do it justice). The charming church/home was quiet, well appointed and clean. And Carolyn was proactive with instructions and a terrific communicator. We will definitely be back!

John

Absolutely incredible! Loved the tranquility and the beautiful views. The decor was so inviting. AND the bell tower works!! Would 100% stay here again!

Tori-Cedar Falls

This place is so beautiful! Carolyn and Terry were so thoughtful and kind to let us have our wedding at the church. They even provided extra supplies in case we needed them. The private garden worked perfectly for our ceremony, and the backyard easily fit our reception needs. Not to mention, the balconies make perfect photo spots! My husband and I recommend the Little White Church and will be telling all our friends about it.

Mahesh-Buffalo Grove

Carolyn was a great host, very flexible! The place is super clean, spacious with a private backyard overlooking the fields and bluffs! We spent a lot of time on the deck. Great kitchen, clean bedrooms and baths. Highly recommend the place.

William

Great place. Great host. Will definitely book again and tell our friends.

Miriam

Carolyn and Terry's place is BEAUTIFUL! The Little White Church is a wonderful place, way more beautiful than the pictures. Everything is brand new and extremely clean. Staying at the church was a unique experience and I would love to come back soon. I strongly recommend the place if you are looking for a 5-star location!

Vanessa-Chicago

Carolyn was great! Absolutely beautiful place! I would not hesitate to go back. We spent Thanksgiving and the next night. Very well stocked and above and beyond with extras included. Thank you!

MAKE US AN OFFER...

What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees and taxes that the big chains charge. Cleaning fees are also drastically reduced. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Let us assist in finding a time and price that works for you. Here's a link to some pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb

Carolyn and I will do all we can to make sure your stay is a memorable one. Please call or text Carolyn for more details and options and get a prime date while they are still available. Again, that's Carolyn at 563-676-3320. Or carolynswettstone@yahoo.com

Now that it's vacation season, there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated AIRBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the 2023 top place to visit in the entire Midwest.

Now is the best time to enjoy all there is to offer, and my 5-star AIRBNB is the perfect location to stay. Set in the rolling hills just outside of town, our completely renovated church is designed for you to unwind and relax.

Again, we are an AIRBNB Super host and can accommodate up to 8 guests. We've got cable, hi-speed WIFI, Sirius XM and a sparkling full kitchen. We are a home away from home and take great pride in cleanliness and comfort. All of our ratings have attained perfect 5-star status!

Hope to see you soon,

Terry and Carolyn

7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA

1. It’s Steeped In History

2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America

3. The Restaurants Are Amazing

4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors

5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing

6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July

7. Did I Mention The Shopping?