FLYING HIGH...
Pilots were flying high around the Midwest Wednesday with only a few scattered cumulus clouds to deal with. VFR conditions (visual flight routes) were widespread....in other words pilots could see without the use of instruments (my preferred mode of air travel). For those of us with our feet on the ground, it was just another fine late summer day with with mild temperatures and turquois skies.
You can see our banner weather on the GOES satellite image. Something interesting to note out west is the smoke plume from wild fires.
Due to strong winds, lack of rainfall, and bone dry air, SPC issued an extremely critical fire outlook for NC Montana Wednesday. It's those fires that are producing the smoke in the satellite image. For us, wind trajectories should see to it that most of the smoke remains to the west in coming days.
From the looks of things little change can be expected until late Saturday (more likely Saturday night). So, when it comes to the sensible weather that means more sunshine and above normal temperatures in our future. That again lasts through Saturday and then a notable change to cooler and likely wetter conditions are indicated.
On the topic of temperatures, you can see on the EURO meteogram how we chug along nice and warm through Saturday. Then our next disturbance arrives bringing clouds, eventually showers, and the cool-down. Some places in my northern counties may remain in the mid 60s Monday.
WHAT ABOUT RAIN...
Over the past few weeks rainfall has varied wildly over my area. The northeast half has seen plenty while the southeast has been high and dry. At my place in Dubuque I've not had measurable rain going on 11 days. Here's the rainfall departures that have built up since June 1st.
It's easy to see that hefty deficits and moderate to severe drought conditions are now established in southeast Iowa and WC Illinois. That's the area that could use a real soaker. This next system Sunday (a cut-off low) is the type of disturbance that could do. It will have ample moisture, good forcing, and will be a slow mover. Confidence is high in all those factors. However, it is low to moderate as to where the circulation center travels. The area north of the center is where a prolonged over-running event with significant rains is expected. Today's data shows the area north of I-80 in the most favorable spot for the heaviest totals. This is still subject to change as a small shift north or south would make a difference. We should have a better handle on that in the next 24-48 hours. As things stand now, here's what models are suggesting for precipitation. The EURO is further north than U.S. based guidance. Maybe, maybe not, it's too early for me to say.
The EURO
The GFS
The National Model Blend (NBM)
The Weather Prediction Center output.
It certainly looks like some big rains are on the table for somebody Sunday and Monday, the question is where. Again, the northern half of my area is currently the primary focus.
At least in the short term, the players are all on the field for more pleasant summer weather but its days are limited. That being the case, I highly suggest you enjoy it! Make it a solid day and as always, roll weather...TS
