FREE (FALL)ING...
We were burning down the house Tuesday as a burst of late season heat brought record highs to much of the central Midwest. Every major reporting station in my area broke its record for the day. Here's the numbers. The 93 in Dubuque broke a long standing record of 127 years set in 1895.
These readings in the low to mid 90s, were a good 20-25 degrees above the norms which are now in the low to mid 70s. Here's a look at the departures from average.
The heat came with humidity too. Dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 sent heat index values into the 97 to 102 category. Pretty impressive for September 20th.
If you disliked the heat, you won't have to put up with it again Wednesday. Thanks to a potent cold front, a new brand of weather will see to it that Thursday's official start to fall has the appropriate temperatures. Often a strong front coming through after peak heating kicks up showers and thunderstorms. However, in this case nothing more than clouds and a few spotty showers or sprinkles are expected behind the front itself. It's primary impact will be to kick up the winds and start driving much cooler and drier air into the Midwest.
Temperatures Wednesday morning will range from the upper 60s north to the mid 70s far south. They should only go up 5 or 6 degrees before leveling off and slowly falling in the afternoon as the cool air deepens from north to south. Along with a period of clouds, expect brisk N/NE winds of 15-25. That's expected to drop dew points at least 20 degrees into the 40s and low 50s by evening.
By Thursday morning dew points have crashed into the 30s, a far cry from the 70 degree level achieved Tuesday.
High temperatures decline each of the next 3 days. We go from the 70s to near 80 Wednesday, to the 65 to 70 degree range Thursday, and finally the 58-63 degree category Friday. The model blend shows highs like this in the Quad Cities over the next 6 days.
One of the reasons for potential highs in the 50s Friday will be increasing clouds and scattered light showers (mainly later in the afternoon). The combination will limit daytime heating coming off a cold night with readings down in the 40s. Rainfall however looks meager Friday afternoon and evening with limited moisture and forcing. Here's what the national model blend is suggesting. Not much!
The EURO is a bit more generous with some amounts up to 2/10ths of an inch in the north.
After Friday's weak disturbance, the rest of the weekend should be quiet and pleasant. Partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the low to mid 70s Saturday and mid to upper 60s Sunday are expected.
The long range period is dominated by northwest flow much of the next 7 days. With Tuesday's heat behind us that leaves 7 day mean temperature departures a little below normal.
The screaming message over the next 2 weeks is the lack of storminess in the pattern. The GFS shows little if any rain over the 16 day period ending October 6th. It indicates this for total rainfall.
That leads to16 day rainfall departures that are pushing 2 inches in my western counties.
Well, enjoy the last full day of summer. Hard to believe another one has come and gone. Time to get on with the business of fall. Have a great day and as I always say, roll weather...TS
