FROSTY PUMPKINS, THEN RAIN...
A week ago we had temperatures of 85-90, Tuesday morning there will be some frost on the pumpkins in many spots with lows down in the range of 32-37. A frost advisory is out for all but the extreme south. Just how cold we end up will be determined by clouds and winds. If we stay clear and winds fully diminish, that drives us to the low end of the spectrum. By all accounts, there's enough cyclonic flow and mixing to keep most of us from completely free falling. Thus, scattered frost is likely but a widespread killing freeze is not. (Although I suspect some localized spots could reach 30-32 in my NW counties). Here's the advisories in effect until 9:00am
After a sunny but crisp day Tuesday, frost is again likely Tuesday night. In fact, winds look lighter and more favorable but could be off-set by clouds from our next storm late, especially south of I-80. That makes the north most susceptible to lows that could reach 31 or 32 degrees in spots. We'll know more on that later in the day. Before that, highs in the upper 50s north to low 60s south are expected.
MUCH NEEDED RAINS...
That leads us into our next weather maker which promises the most widespread and beneficial rains in many months. There's still the usual issues to iron out with mesoscale details such as amounts and where the heaviest rains occur. However, it seems most of the area is in line for 1-3 inch totals.
The first round of rain swings in from the south Wednesday. Strong moisture advection and forcing is expected to unfold north of a warm front near the Missouri Iowa border. Water vapor Wednesday through Friday is in the 1.00 to 1.50 inch range, way above average. Critical for the high end amounts that are on the table.
The tricky aspect of the precipitation forecast is the location of the warm front and the active baroclinic boundary it creates. Models are still struggling a bit to determine the track of the closed 500mb circulation which only slowly crosses the region. The EURO is further south than the GFS, keeping the warm advection wing in play much of the precipitation phase of the event. It also allows the deformation band NW of the circulation to factor in as well. Such an outcome would put the heavier rains over the heart of my area.
The GFS solution limits the warm advection process, progressing the warm front through the entire region at a faster pace. It actually produces a lull in the rain late Thursday or Thursday night before the cold front ramps it up again Friday. This limits rain totals significantly south of I-80.
The Weather Prediction Center and NBM (National blend of models), are generous across the board with rain amounts and are closer to the EURO solution. Bottom line, the GFS is the outlier but not necessarily wrong. We should get a solid handle on solid trends in coming model guidance.
NBM (National model blend)
While there may be some convection along the warm front and later ahead of the cold front, rainfall rates should be sufficient to allow much of the rain to be absorbed limiting any flash flood threat. Overall, this sure looks like a great situation to make a dent in the drought and get some moisture into the ground before winter. Fingers crossed.
Temperatures will be very dependent on the track of the surface low and position of the warm front. The far north may never reach the warm sector and E/SE winds will keeps things plenty fresh, mainly in the 50s to at best mid 60s north of I-80 Wednesday through Saturday. The south may break into the 60s and the area near and south of I-80 could enter the 70s Friday, depending on the northward extent of the warm front. Confidence in temperatures Thursday and especially Friday are low at this time.
Gusty and cold winds are also expected out of the north as the system pushes east Friday night into Saturday. It looks like a rather poor start to the weekend.
That's where we are for now, enjoy this pleasant day coming up. Once it's behind us things look damp, cool, and unsettle Wednesday through Saturday. Roll weather...TS
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