GENTLE RAIN AND AUTUMN TEMPERATURES

The start to the weekend was a cool and cloudy one for most of the area with a few spotty light showers here and there as well. The air certainly has that autumn feel we have been missing out on for quite a while. If you like the autumn weather then this week is mostly in your favor with seasonally-cool temperatures and a few light rain chances through the start of the work week.

Five-day precipitation off the blend of models from the Weather Prediction Center (above) gives the region 0.25" to 0.50" in the coming days. This will mainly be in the form of light showers Monday night through Wednesday. Some dry air entrainment from the northern Great Lakes is worth watching as it could lessen totals across far eastern Iowa and northern Illinois.

The latest run of the GFS is the most aggressive with the dry air issues and really keeps the rain in check around the Quad Cities with the most bullish totals to the west. This is the outlier solution, but I don't think it's completely one to ignore as the rather complicated upper air pattern could send some very dry mid-level air southwestward into the local area.

The European Ensemble matches the WPC forecast well with 0.25"-0.50" in the Quad Cities region and heavier totals out west. I do think this has the right idea, but the gradient on the far eastern edge of the rainfall will be tighter than depicted above given the previously mentioned dry air. Central and western Iowa should get a nice, soaking rain from this stubborn system with eastern Iowa and northern Illinois getting a decent drink of water.

The NAM does not completely have the event in full range, but it generally is more along the lines of the Euro/Euro ensembles with the rain cutoff being much farther east. Models have about the I-94 corridor as the cutoff of measurable rain.

Behind this system, mainly Wednesday through Saturday, we can expect seasonally cool to below-normal temperatures across the Midwest. This includes Halloween which could be a chilly one for the trick-or-treaters. Lows will likely not be as cold as last week, but mid/upper 30s are certainly possible Wednesday night through Saturday night.

You'll notice on the tail-end of the animated loop we start to see a lot of red return. A fairly broad ridge looks to build back in across the western two-thirds of the US leading to a slow yet methodical warm up. Now, keep in mind what is considered above-normal the first week of November is much different than that of early October.

The European Ensemble for example has upper-50s for highs Nov. 2-3 which is a few degrees above normal, but not considerably "warm." So context is certainly needed as the bright reds on maps you might start seeing shared around are not 70s and 80s.

The American GEFS is a little warmer next weekend/early next week with highs in the low 60s. Either way that is what we are looking forward to in the extended period. This subtle warming will likely be accompanied by fairly dry conditions as well.

Analogs are firmly in the below-normal precipitation camp centered Nov. 2-5. for the Upper Midwest which makes a lot of sense looking ate the overall anticipated pattern setting up next week. The dry conditions will be helpful for any farmers trying to harvest the last of their crop with dry fields taking over once we get past this early-week system.

Thursday evening we had a beautiful launch of the SPAINSAT from the Florida Space Coast on a perfect, but breezy, evening. Can you spot Pleiades, or the Seven Sisters in the image? Have a great rest of the weekend!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart