GOOD TO THE LAST DROP...

Wow, what a day Wednesday was! Put that one in the do not disturb bag! As far as I'm concerned, it hit all the marks of a perfect 10. Nothing I would do to change a thing. Our highs in the low 80s were actually 20 degrees above normal, but with dew points down around 50 humidity was not an issue. I ran into a guy from Phoenix, Arizona who was visiting, and he said it was as good as anything they've had down that way all year. Hooray for us!

Subtle changes are already underway to our west that indicate moisture is rapidly returning to the Midwest weather pattern. Thursday that will manifest itself with increasing cloudiness, particularly west of the Mississippi. There's even a chance of a few late day showers, but the bulk of the rain, including scattered thunderstorms is expected to be found Thurday night.

The speed of the system Thursday takes the trough and associated cold front into central Iowa during peak heating. That places the more substantial CAPE (instability) on an axis from Des Moines into western Missouri. That area has a slight level 2 of 5 severe weather risk. By the time any remnant storms reach my counties in eastern Iowa, instabiliy will be waning and what survives is likely to remain under severe limits. That said, a couple of the stronger updrafts could still produce some gusty winds, brief small hail, and scattered downpours.

As the front moves progressively east, and rain ends from west to east early in the day Friday, the heavier amounts (which could reach up to an inch) are likely to be west of the Mississippi before precipitation weakens significantly as it advances into Illinois. Here's what is shown for rain totals Thursday evening into Friday morning.

The HRRR

The 3k NAM

The National Model Blend.

Before any rain falls, Thursday ends up another unseasonably mild day with highs on the HRRR in the upper 70s to low 80s.

It will be a bit more muggy too with moisture advecting northward during the day. The HRRR has available water vapor well over 1.25 inches which is why some spots will get in on rains pushing an inch.

Much drier air surges across the area Friday afternoon and remains in place through the day Saturday. Seasonal highs of 67 to 72 are expected during the Friday and Saturday period.

Sunday, a healthy disturbance in the sub-tropical jet is directed at the region. It quickly taps moisture setting the stage for what has the potential to be another generous rainfall event.

By Monday morning the EURO has a 995mb surface low entering SW Minnesota with widespread showers and storms developing Sunday night and continuing into Monday.

With water vapor up to 1.60 inches, moisture looks plentiful and rainfall of an inch is again on the table.

With the system tracking to our NW we will remain mild through Monday with highs upper 60s NW to the low to mid 70s SE. The National Model Blend indicates this for rainfall through Monday. Early indications are that the area is in line for another 1-2 inches of rain between Thursday night and Monday night.

Finally, the storm track behind this disturbance shifts south of the region for much of next week and the following weekend. That can still mean some rain from time to time but the big thunderstorms will be confined to southern Missouri and Illinois. What we can expect is condiderable cloudiness, easterly winds and below normal temperatures. This is a trend that I've been noting for over a week and todays guidance has not backed down. These are the 7 day temperature departures for the period May 1st through the 8th. Some readings are 9-10 degrees below normal per day. Who ordered that!

The rains are set to get cranking again tomorrow night but before they do, we should enjoy the fruits of another mild April day Thursday. Roll weather....TS