GOT THE RAIN, NOT THE SEVERE!

Wednesday, a significant severe weather outbreak ravaged parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley, as well as the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, several strong to significant severe wind gusts, and large to very large hail were reported. The night before the event (Tuesday night) the Storm Prediction Center had a slight to enhanced risk out for much of my area.

My expectation was that if Wednesday's threat did evolve locally, it would be contingent on clearing skies and air mass destabilization following morning storms. We did get the storm and heating, but by then we had lost our steep lapse rates and failed to maintain deep layer moisture that was found to our southeast. As I indicated in my previous post Tuesday night, in situations such as this, sometimes you can't see the full picture until the morning of the actual event when mesoscale details are revealed. Once it became apparent instability was lacking locally, SPC shifted the outlook east and even put out a rare moderate to high risk assessment for severe storms from the Ohio Valley southwest.

As of late Wednesday night, more than 367 reports of severe weather had been filed by the Storm Prediction Center. Aside from 21 tornadoes, destructive winds of 100mph were reported in Eaton, Indiana and 87 mph in Lapel, Indiana. Baseball size hail fell in several Arkansas supercells.

While we were fortunate enough to avoid the severe storms, we did not miss out on some much-needed rain. Showers and thunderstorms (some with small hail), produce 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in many areas. Some spots just west of the Quad City metro picked up nearly 1.50 inches.

Some additional rain reports from around the central region through early Wednesday.

Conditions turn cooler and drier Thursday as Wednesday's energy quickly lifts northeast. Even with some mixed sunshine, highs will likely remain in the range of 53 north to 58 south.

Friday, another system ejects out of the southwest and while the brunt of its rain remains to the southeast, some light rain may clip the area, especially the SE half of my area later in the day friday into the evening. Clouds will certainly come to roost, holding highs in the low to mid 50s. As far as rain, this is what is indicated for total precipitation later Friday into Friday night. Also note the excessive rains expected to fall from Arkansas up the Ohio River. A serious flooding event is likely to evolve there over the next 48-72 hours.

The EURO

The GFS

Looking at teleconnections, the Arctic Oscillation, Eastern Pacific Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation are all shown going negative the next few days. Meantime, the Pacific North America Oscillation flips to positive. Those are all cold signals, and I do foresee about a week-long period dominated by NW flow and below normal temperatures. Both the EURO and GFS are in agreement in the cool stretch ahead. The coolest weather appears to occur Monday and Tuesday of next week. It would not be surprising to see some snow showers or flurries at some time during that period, with cold air aloft creating steep lapse rates and plenty of diurnal instability.

The EURO

The GFS

These are the temperature departures shown on the EURO for the next 8 days. Some crisp weather ahead.

At least for now, it's back to sunny but cool weather today. Compared to what's happened to the southeast (or will happen with additional severe weather and flooding) we have plenty to be thankful for. Roll weather...TS