HAVE YOU HEARD THE NEWS...

Have you heard, or even seen the news? The dark eyed Junco, known as the snowbird of the Midwest, is back. Over most of the eastern United States, the junco appears as winter approaches, and then retreats northward with the arrival of spring.

Personally, I hadn't noticed the feathery creature, which belongs to the sparrow family. However, Steve Gottschalk (the climate guru) always keeps a sharp eye out for them come fall. The reason being is that he follows and tracks an old folklore that states the first snowflakes will fly within 2 weeks of their arrival. Steve, ever the observer, has been keeping track of the trends in his part of EC Iowa for decades. His personal data suggests the first snowflakes will occur within 26 days of the junco's touchdown. This year, they flew in around the 8th, meaning snowflakes by November 3rd. Steve mentioned that through 2023 the accuracy of the folklore was on target 80 percent of the time. However, last year the first snowflakes weren't seen until 39 days after arrival, and that has now dropped the success rate to about 76 percent. Snowbirds or not, I currently don't see any snow in this area for at least the next 2 weeks, probably more than 3. This is what the GFS indicates for total snowfall through October 26th. Still a little time to meat the November 3rd deadline.

Well, our weekend got off to a slow start Friday morning with some clouds and showers. Even a few thunderstorms were noted overnight Thursday. This led to a couple narrow bands of 1/4 to 1/2 inch rains. Sadly, these were few and far between and most of the area, as expected, came in with little to no rain at all. Here are Doppler estimates of what fell though Friday morning.

Here are some coop reports

These are metar station reports.

The rains certainly will not improve the dryness we've incurred the past 2 months. The latest drought monitor shows dry weather expanding northwest. As of the 7th, 76.18 percent of the Midwest had either abnormally dry, moderate, severe or extreme drought conditions.

Compare the above map to the one below, showing only 9.70 percent with those conditions just 2 months ago, August 5th. I'm not liking the trend.

Here in Dubuque, we've had just 1.24 inches of rain at the airport south of town the past 59 days and counting.

That's a deficit of over 6 inches in less than 2 months time.

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STEADY AS SHE GOES THIS WEEKEND

While there may be some showers around Monday and Wednesday next week, they look scattered and very much on the light side. In fact, overall precipitation appears to be below normal through the 17th. The EURO indicates amounts like this.

These are the corresponding 7-day rainfall departures. Still below normal.

Around the 19th, the Midwest comes under the influence of a large southwest trough that will eject spokes of energy with the potential of a dynamic system with plenty of moisture. The warm sector could even see some strong storms and widespread rains if trends hold. More than a week away, lots of mesoscale details remain unknown, but this is a period to keep an eye on, especially if the EURO verifies. Here is the system approaching the 19th.

Temperatures the next few days should remain mild in the range of 70-75, Saturday through Thursday of the coming week. If the storm the EURO indicates materializes after that, highs around the 17th and 18th have a shot at reaching 80.

Having said that, the GFS is not in the camp of the EURO and without the benefit of the stronger more phased solution of the EURO is significantly cooler after Tuesday, October 14th. In fact, the model just keeps getting colder and colder until highs are shown in the mid 40s, the 25th and 26th. Needless to say, confidence is on the lower side when it comes to how energy is resolved in the coming week. At the very least, temperatures should be trending down sometime in the 6 to 10-day period.

Come what may, Saturday is going to be a banner day with sunny skies, light winds, low humidity, and highs close to 70. It doesn't get much better than that October 11th. Enjoy and by all means, roll weather....TS.