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HEIGH HO, HEIGH HO, WHERE DID THE RAIN GO

The backdoor cold front which cleared the area Thursday night did its dirty work cooling temperatures and sending another surge of dry air into the region. It's strength and position will determine the fate of any rain that attempts to enter the region late Saturday night and Sunday.

As you likely noticed, the air Friday was fresh and dry with morning dew points back in the mid 40s, the low end of typical mid-June moisture levels.

With the resurgence of high pressure and its dry air setting up shop over the Great Lakes, it's likely to provide a block for the next system that arrives Saturday night/Sunday. As it approaches Saturday night it will fight dry low levels and its rain band is expected to weaken as it encounters eastern Iowa and the block. Eventually the whole system reorganizes and turns southeast into a more favorable environment bypassing the majority of my area. Some light rain amounts may reach my western and southern counties but nothing that will alleviate the drought. Here's what models are suggesting for rain.


The EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM

The Canadian GEM

Once Sunday's system departs, we get back into a stagnant pattern next week where there is no forcing or organized storms to contend with. The end result is another dry week of weather coming up. Of significant concern is the latest trends of growing heat. The EURO has been showing this idea with increasing intensity for the past few days. I think it's doing a better job of handling the feedback of dry soils and meager low level moisture. Those facts combined with the longest days of the year and the direct nature of the sun are the reasons why I think it has the right idea. Even the GFS is getting clued in so confidence is growing in hot (but not necessarily steamy) weather in the long range. Here's what the EURO meteogram looks like through June 26th around the Quad Cities.

The GFS rainfall departures the next 2 weeks are disheartening. Widespread dry weather continuing.

I must say after weeks of this persistent pattern there's not much new to add. In fact, I feel like I'm beating a dead horse. I've said about all I can say for now as I look to the future in the hope of change. Have a terrific weekend and as always, roll weather...TS


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