HOLD ONTO YOUR HAT PARTNER...
CLIPPED BY A CLIPPER...
Another fast moving clipper is currently flying southeast across the region and that means it's time to pay the piper for the mild weather of the past few days. Already its produced scattered rain and snow showers and some gusty winds. It's likely some minor snow accumulations occurred overnight near HWY 20, especially in far northern Illinois. This was due to strong warm advection along a warm front that's now passed into Wisconsin. That's left us in the warm sector and temperatures in all areas will be well above freezing through the morning. Highs in the upper 30s will be reached in the north by noon before an Arctic cold front charges through the region. The south should reach 45 to 50 for a time in the afternoon and then join the north in experiencing falling temperatures as the cold quickly sweeps southeast.
After backing off for a time ahead of the front, winds will crank up again as pressures rapidly rise along and behind it reaching speeds of 35 mph+ by late afternoon. Friday evening temperatures will continue to fall as gusty winds pump modified Arctic air into the Midwest. By Saturday morning lows will range from about 3 in the north to 13 in the south. Thanks to the wind, it will feel more like -13 to -3. The 3K NAM shows this for wind chills
As the cold comes screeching through late Friday and into the evening, stout cold air advection and forcing near the front will generate scattered snow showers. Visibilities could briefly drop in short snow squalls that in spots could produce a solid dusting of snow up to 1/4 to 1/2", especially NE of the Quad Cities.
Saturday, winds will diminish as high pressure crosses the region. Ample sunshine will be accompanied by highs that remain in the teens. Most readings will be at least 15 degrees below the norms. The GFS indicates temperature departures that look like this. By the way, this is the air mass the GFS pointed to over a week ago that might produce readings of 20 below and minus 40 wind chills. Glad that never materialized. Even so, Saturday will be plenty fresh!
LET'S DO ANOTHER CLIPPER...
The first clippers little brother is trying to catch up to his elder and blazes swiftly southeast right on his heels into the region Saturday night. Clouds quickly develop and it looks like a quick hitting band of light snow will cut NW to SE through parts of the area after midnight. The SW half of the region is most at risk. The potential is there for up to an inch of snow. If anything, data has come in lighter on totals which were meager to begin with. Here's what the latest models are currently indicating for potential snow amounts. It will be a fluffy light snow where it falls and will not cause any real problems.
The GFS
The EURO
Any snow is out of the SE by afternoon Sunday leaving us with cold but quiet conditions by the time the Super Bowl arrives Sunday evening. Party on Garth...
Another nice warm-up ensues the first 3 days of next week with highs going from the 30s Monday, to the 40s Tuesday, and the 50s Wednesday. Look at these readings the EURO shows!
After that, things get much more interesting as moisture and energy combine to produce what could be a decent precipitation event Thursday. That is something many parts of my area (aside from the far southeast) really need. Before what fell last night, here in the Quad Cities precipitation over the past 47 days amounted to just 0.47". Even more amazing, just 0.02" over the last 29 days!
The storm that could change all that is coming out of the southwest and is attempting to phase with additional energy diving in from the northwest. As is often the case, models have difficulty resolving energy in situations like this. Full bundling would create a powerful system. Minimal phasing could allow the whole thing to pass largely to the south. At this point, at least moderate phasing is indicated leading to what's currently shown as a wet storm for some part of the central Midwest. It also looks to have a snowy side as well.
Here's what the GFS and EURO show for precipitation totals from next weeks storm which at this point remains low confidence and very much subject to change.
The GFS
The EURO
Models are also depicting snow but again I stress out 7 days this is very low confidence and amounts and placement are guaranteed to change. Take these projected snowfall totals with a grain of salt.
The GFS
The EURO
All things considered, there's a lot of weather on the table and I'm going to need my thinking cap to get through the next week. Happy Friday and roll weather...TS
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