HOT DOGS AND HOT TEMPS

As the charcoal heats up this Independence Day weekend, so too will the temperatures with highs reaching into the low 90s coupled with heat indices exceeding the mid-90s across the region. It could certainly be worse with dewpoint temperatures only rising to about 70. This will likely prevent triple digit heat indices from taking over.

For the Quad Cities, 28% of all Independence Days have highs in the 90s so we will certainly be in uncommon, but not unheard of, territory. Historically we have reached 100° twice - 102° in 1911 and 100° in 1901.

Before we get to Friday, we have a little bit of a storm chance on Thursday to contend with. Pretty much all high-resolution modeling indicates isolated storms popping up in the late afternoon and early evening. Any storms that form could potentially turn severe with damaging wind gusts, torrential rain and frequent lightning being the main concern. This generally looks like the eastern half of Iowa.

Later at night there may be elevated thunderstorms capable of small hail and damaging wind gusts across southeastern Minnesota and central Wisconsin. For the Quad Cities region, this might be another missed rain and storm chance.

To cover this risk Thursday the Storm Prediction Center does have a Level 1 of 5 risk, a Marginal Risk, for northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Given limited storm coverage I think this is a pretty good forecast for the time being.

There is another risk of thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night across the Midwest, and once again there could be a risk of strong storms with this activity. What may benefit us is the timing of the activity trending towards late in the evening and overnight. Ensemble guidance has a half inch of precipitation which indicates some increased confidence.

The EURO

The GFS

Global models all show a generous 0.25" to 0.50" across much of the area with this activity Saturday/Saturday night. If there are stronger storms totals up to 1" are certainly possible.

Looking ahead to next week we are watching another storm system in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame with ensembles once again showing some increased confidence. The pattern will also support it with the combination is strong instability and upper-level support.

Analogs during this period are indicating above-normal precipitation chances for the Midwest.

Ensembles show northwest flow aloft which is a pretty good signal for strong storms as well. We have a ways to go, but wanted to give you something else to munch as we head into the holiday weekend.

Celebrate responsibly friends!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart