SUMMER HEAT, STORMS ARE JUST GETTING STARTED

Probabilities for above-normal temperatures remain high across the eastern two-thirds of the US heading into July with analogs hinting at 90-95% chances for these warmer temperatures. Overall the Fourth of July weekend is looking toasty from the Northeast to the Central Plains.

The blend of models shows temperatures easily climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s later this week into the weekend. Of course, the peak of the heat looks to set up on Independence Day just in time for all your holiday plans.

As you are well aware temperatures in the 90s tend to last long into the calendar year. Since 2015 the last 90-degree-day for the Quad Cities has occurred in September. On average the last 90 is September 4. So the heat is just beginning.

Average number of 90-degree days peaks in July for the Quad Cities as well:

• June - 5

• July - 9

• August - 6

• September - 2

In addition to the heat, the pattern is also looking quite active for the region. Analogs are hinting at above-normal precipitation for the July 5-8 time frame as the 'Ring of Fire' pattern slowly creeps southward once again. All the parameters are setting up for the potential of severe weather as well.

Analogs continue to support the idea of severe weather reports in the same window this weekend. The probabilities of at least one severe weather report continue to increase across the region as well with the percentage now up to about 70% confidence across eastern Iowa into northern Indiana and Ohio.

Formally there are no Storm Prediction Center outlooks in place across the region late this week into the weekend, but I do think there will be something popping up in due time. The machine learning forecast does indicate some severe weather chance across a broad area, equivalent to a Marginal Risk at this point. If confidence increases we will likely see some areas outlined in the coming days.

Euro

GFS

Both global models, the GFS and the Euro, indicate thunderstorms develop in the region Saturday so the potential is certainly there to tap into an unstable airmass. CAPE is projected to climb near 3000-4000j/kg which is more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms. Timing will be everything for this, so we will continue to watch is closely!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart