IN THE THICK OF IT

Following some torrential rainfall Saturday morning more storms are moving across the region tonight which will equally have the potential to dump several inches of rain in a short period of time. Flash flooding was reported in areas like Vinton, Iowa and Macomb, Illinois early Saturday and with another round of heavy rain coming through the region we could see prolonged and exacerbated flooding issues. High-res modeling always comes with some lower confidence in this type of pattern as storm initiation, movement and timing are highly variable, however we are seeing the potential for more 3"+ totals especially across southern Iowa overnight into early Sunday.

RAINFALL TOTALS (Friday Night/Saturday Morning)

• Adair, IL - 7.50"

• Bode, IA - 4.85"

• Urbana, IA - 4.00"

• Bardolph, IL - 4.00"

• Vinton, IA - 3.15"

• Burlington, IA - 2.55"

• Carthage, IL - 2.00"

• La Harpe, IL - 1.45"

• Dubuque, IA - 1.60"

• Belle Plaine, IA - 1.60"

• Geneseo, IL - 1.50"

• Manchester, IA - 1.50"

• Mount Pleasant, IA - 1.40"

• Hiawatha, IA - 1.30"

• Clinton, IA - 1.00"

• Iowa City, IA - 0.79"

• Moline, IL - 0.78"

• Davenport, IA - 0.62"

The Weather Prediction Center has a large Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4 risk) across much of Iowa. Given some limited confidence in storm placement I think it prevented a Moderate (Level 3 risk) from being issued. Depending where storms end up, however, I think we could be dealing with some potentially significant flooding concerns as more heavy rain falls on already saturated soils.

Current river levels are in the 90th+ percentile compared to climatology for this time of year for much of the area, especially for the Mississippi River tributaries across Iowa and southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. This means many areas are near record heights and flow for mid/late July. And additional heavy rain will potentially lead to not only flash flooding, but river flooding concerns.

I cannot stress enough if you are camping along area rivers over the next week, please be vigilant and be aware of the water location and how to get to high ground. We can see some very quick rises on area rivers.

For example in west-central Illinois the LaMoine River which runs through Macomb rose 12' in just a few hours downstream at Colmar Saturday. Similar rises are possible on other rivers, creeks and streams.

SUNDAY NIGHT - HRRR

SUNDAY NIGHT - NAM3K

There will be another potential round of thunderstorms Sunday night into early Monday morning for the region as the 'Ring of Fire' pattern continues. The exact placement of this will be dependent on what exactly happens Saturday night and Sunday morning. Boundary placement, morning cloud cover, etc. will impact the next round of activity (round three for those keeping track).

The good/bad news - the 'Ring of Fire' will likely start shifting north as we go through the week. This will likely end the storm threat for the early part of the work week, however it will also usher in some intense heat and humidity with temperatures running 7-12° above normal for this (already hot) time of year.

A storm threat remains possible Monday night into early Tuesday before we likely start to bake.

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

Air temperatures are forecast to push well into the low/mid 90s by Wednesday for a large portion of the area. With high humidity levels the heat indices will surge well into the triple digits. This will be some of the highest temperatures for the year, and of course, it coincides with RAGBRAI. Stay cool and hydrated, friends.

Early indications are the pattern breaks down a bit late this week (Thursday/Friday) but that's a bit far off for now. Just watching that for the next chance of rain and storms.

I will end with some research I am doing of lightning over Central Florida. On Tuesday June 15, Invest 93-L made landfall just north of the Florida Space Coast. Ahead of the center of circulation a convective rainband moved through shortly after 4 a.m. In that band a lightning strike traveled 57.0km/35.4mi from north to south as it hopped from thunderstorm core to thunderstorm core. This certainly goes to show the dangers of lightning as it can strike really far from its origin! When thunder roars, go indoors, friends.

Stay cool....

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart