ROUND ONE MOVING IN

Our active pattern is moving into the region starting Thursday evening and night as the first of a few storm systems bring the risk of widespread showers and thunderstorms. The severe weather is very limited, but locally heavy rain is likely especially with training thunderstorms along/north of a boundary that is projected to stall to the south. The heaviest rain appears to fall along/north of the Iowa/Missouri border region.

High resolution modeling continues to have a widespread swatch of 1-1.5" across east-central Iowa into northwest Illinois. Latest modeling, however, is showing a secondary axis of heavy rain in southern Iowa. It's not out of the realm of likelihood a storm or two could produce some large hail.

Temperatures will have quite a range north to south. Northeast Iowa may struggle to leave the low 50s while southeast Iowa could be in the low 70s. This shows the general placement of the frontal boundary that will be the focus for the heavy rain threat late Thursday evening. We expect the Quad Cities region to top out in the upper 60s, but any difference in placement of the boundary could lead to a rather significant difference in high temperature.

EURO - SUNDAY EVENING

EURO - MONDAY EVENING

Sunday/Monday will be the next storm system that we are watching. Sunday is trending back and forth so I would say confidence is somewhat limited on that front as to how it will play out. The latest trend is toward a little more active weather and heavier rain Sunday.

Monday we continue to watch as well. Last night I mentioned the increasing chances of severe weather, and the Storm Prediction Center has officially outlined Monday for severe weather including our area. Strong upper air support with sufficient instability will lead to a severe weather event across the central US. This is the equivalent of a Sligh Risk (Level 2 of 5) at this range.

The seven-day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center has a rather large area of 2-3" across our area. This includes the rain Thursday night, this weekend and more storm chances early next week.

The rather active weather pattern looks to continue through much of the rest of April with the European Ensemble keeping rain chances elevated through at least April 24. Next weekend into early next week looks like another round of widespread rain activity but let's get through the next week's action first.

Have a great rest of the week, Friends!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart