INDIAN SUMMER SATURDAY, THEN THE PLUNGE SUNDAY...
Friday started cold around the region with most areas at or below the freezing mark. On top of that a few brief rain showers popped up that in some cases was mixed with snow. Most of this was in east central Iowa. Steve Gottschalk in Lowden, Iowa reported his first snowflakes and had this to say about a folklore he watches for the first snow, "The snowbirds ( a migrating bird) showed up on the 6th and they were right about seeing the first snow within 2 weeks". These are Friday mornings lows.
Essentially all of my area has now experienced its first freeze which means any stretch of mild weather now is considered to be Indian Summer. I mention this as Saturday will be a day that qualifies with highs that should get well into the 60s, perhaps near 70 in the far south. The EURO shows this for max temperatures.
Unfortunately, a tight pressure gradient will develop that ratchets up the winds. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected and wind advisories are in effect for many areas.
There will likely be some passing clouds, especially in the morning before some sun mixes in during the afternoon. Then the attention turns to the cold front which plows through Saturday night. Post frontal showers are expected to develop after midnight and progress southward into Sunday morning. Precipitation will be light but temperatures may get cold enough aloft just before the showers end for a brief mix or changeover to snow. Surface temperatures will be warm so the worst case scenario is nothing more than a dusting on grassy or elevated surfaces. Right now the chances of even that look pretty low but it would not shock me to see some flakes around Sunday. Here's what the EURO shows for snow.
The GFS is a tad more bullish.
No matter whether we see snow or not Sunday it's going to be a raw day. Gusty winds and temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s much of the day will see to that, especially with a gusty NW wind adding to the chill.
I'm making this post brief today as I've been on the computer for 13 hours wrapping up my upcoming book on this summers derecho. As a tease here's what the cover looks like. It's an in depth historical account with plenty of images and graphics. I'm very pleased with the way it turned out and I think you will find it compelling, interesting, and informative. I will begin pre-sales soon.
Enjoy your weekend and roll weather...TS