IT AIN'T OVER TIL IT'S OVER
NOW MORE THAN EVER I NEED YOUR HELP WITH OPERATING EXPENSES
THE FUTURE OF THE SITE DEPENDS ON YOU.
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WHO'S THAT LURKING AT THE DOOR?
For more than two weeks, I've been harping about a change to colder weather around February 15th. I've showed you teleconnections, MJO forecasts, strat. warms, and SOI crashes that all supported my claims. Some days I thought I had it all figured out, only to have new deterministic models come down saying, "dude are you crazy, what cold air"! It does make you wonder, and I've openly expressed my concerns about barking up the wrong tree.
Well, the 15th will be here soon, so it's time to put up or shut up. Get off the pot if you will. So what's the verdict, I say go down with the ship captain, so that's what I've decided. The evidence is far greater for more cold and winter than to argue against it, so that's the sword I'll win with or fall on. So here's what I'm seeing that has made up my mind. Friday morning the 16th, a growing pocket of cold air is sinking into the northern Rockies
By February 20th, the EURO shows that it's surged into the Ohio Valley, and temperature departures show most of my area 22–24 degrees below normal.
That generates lows right around zero.
And wind chills to 12 below.
One run of a model (a week out) is not something to take too literally. What's more important, is that the trend fits the teleconnections. Additionally, the 500mb forecast for February 20th is very good for cold with all the blocking from Alaska through northern Canada and much of Greenland on the EURO. That is something we saw with our wintry surge back in early to mid-January. That should force cold air from the northern latitudes into the mid-latitudes of the Midwest if it can sustain itself.
As much as I would like to say this is a high confidence forecast, it is not. The old ways are not as tried and true as they were, especially with seas surface temperatures globally as warm as they are. The bottom line is, I'm set to make a stand. If the cold doesn't come, I'll admit it, learn from it, and move on. I'll also be glad for the savings in heating bills and snow removal costs. Always a silver lining! Roll weather...TS Additionally with my recent health issues, I very much need to reach my fund-raising goals. To keep things as they are, I'm in humble need of your donation to the site more than ever. If you use it and find value in it, please consider a contribution. Thanks to you who have already helped the cause!