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JUST A BIT FLAKY...

OPEN HOUSE TODAY AT THE LITTLE WHITE CHURCH...

Saturday from 1-4:00 PM we are hosting an open house at our Airbnb just north of Galena. It's open to you, our longtime followers and friends who are interested in seeing the finished renovation of the 1893 church. It would be a treat to see you and of course I'm always up to talk weather as well. The address is 6603 West Council Hill Road. Scales Mound, Illinois 61025. It would be a treat to see you! If you can't make it here's a link with some pictures and additional info. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb Roll weather...TS

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JUST A BIT FLAKY

We closed out the week Friday with a cloudy, cold, but dry day. Temperatures were in the upper 20s in the NW with snow cover while low 30s were common in the barren areas elsewhere. These readings were close to normal, an oddity for a January that is running way above normal. In the graphic below from the IEM you can compare actual high and low temperatures for the month in Cedar Rapids to the averages. Outside of one of the first 19 days, the rest of the months readings have been above normal, many by 10-20 degrees

The snow drought continues in my area with seasonal totals of a trace to 4 inches from about the Quad Cities southeast. Northwest of there amounts are in the 8-12 inch range. The NW third of Iowa is hogging the snow with amounts 24-40 inches. Pigs!

Most areas locally have had only 15-40 percent of their mean snowfall to date.

The next few days will see a chances of snow as a couple systems pass through the region. The first, Saturday night is nothing to write home about but it looks to produce a swath of light snow over most of the region. Currently, amounts of 1 to perhaps 2 inches are expected. Travel impacts look minimal with it being an overnight event and on the weekend.


The next system is far more significant with better dynamics and moisture next Tuesday night and Wednesday. The question here is how far nothwest does it get? All models show less phasing with a closed 500mb low ejecting out of west Texas and looping toward Indiana. Such a track would keep the heavier snow southeast of my area. Currently, the GFS produces little more than a dusting in my southeastern counties. The EURO is a bit further NW and clips my counties from about the Quad Cities southeast with light snows on the order of a 1 to 2 inches. Further NW amounts of a trace to an inch are indicated.


I personally think at this point this ends up being a minimal event for all but my far southeastern counties (the SE tip of Iowa into WC Illinois) where some light accumulations of 1-2 inches may occur.


The issue of phasing and track is still an evolving factor and is far from certain. It may take another day or two before that is resolved. What I can say is that phasing will be the deciding factor in determining how much (if any snow falls) in my area. There's still some time for alterations but overall trends are backing away from much in the way of snow in all but the far southeast. Even there amounts look on the light side with amounts of an inch ot two on the EURO. If the GFS is right it won't be much more than a dusting. Here's what the latest models suggest.


The GFS

The EURO

After this system departs the pattern takes a definate turn towards colder conditions the remainder of January into early February. The 7 day period January 29th to February 5th appears to be the coldest at this point with departures that look like this.


The EURO

The GFS

The Canadian

OPEN HOUSE TODAY AT THE LITTLE WHITE CHURCH...

I will close with a reminder that today from 1-4:00 PM we are hosting an open house at our Airbnb just north of Galena. It's open to you, our longtime followers and friends who are interested in seeing the finished renovation of the 1893 church. It would be a treat to see you and of course I'm always open to talk weather as well. The address is 6603 West Council Hill Road. Scales Mound, Illinois 61025. It would be a treat to see you! If you can't make it here's a link with some pictures and additional info. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb Roll weather...TS