JUST A GLANCING BLOW...

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WATCHING AND WAVING

For all but my southern counties, it looks as though we'll miss what promises to be a major snowmaker Wednesday and Thursday. For most of us, all we can do is watch and wave as it pounds the lower half of the Midwest.

In general, my thoughts have not changed much on the impacts of the system for my area for several days. Dry air is going to be an insurmountable obstacle for snow chances NW of the Quad Cities. While some models continue to advertise snow of 1-2 inches for places like Washington, Iowa to Kewanee, Illinois (including the Quad Cities), I think that may be a bit too far north but that's subject to change. I do expect most of the significant accumulations to be south of a line from Burlington, Iowa to Princeton, Illinois. In this area 2 to 5" totals are possible. There will be a very sharp cut-off line to the northern edge of the snow band. It's still not out of the question that a small shift north or south will occur altering amounts slightly. However, I think the chances are greater that it shifts further south than north.

So what I'm saying is that this is still a low confidence snowfall forecast for the area SE of the Quad Cities. Undoubtable though, the further southeast you go the better the chances for snow and the higher the accumulations.

Down south in Missouri, through Illinois and Indiana, this has the potential to be a high impact storm with a long duration of snow, which in some places will be accompanied by freezing rain and sleet. The Weather Prediction Center indicates the potential for moderate impacts in my far southeastern counties and major ones further into Missouri and Illinois.

Currently winter storm advisories and warnings are out for these counties southeast of the Quad Cities.

This larger perspective shows the vast area under the influence of winter storm watches and warmings.

WPC is currently showing these odds of an inch or more of snow.

The NWS in the Quad Cities has put this out as their official snowfall forecast at this juncture. Notice the range in the Quad Cities and Sterling is between 1 and 6 inches. The NWS indicates that's due to the high level of uncertainty regarding the placement of the north edge of the snow band. I think both of those communities will be lucky to get two inches and more likely it's an inch or less.

The snow is expected to come in two waves. One late Tuesday night Wednesday, then another late Wednesday night Thursday. Most of the snow that occurs in my area would fall in the first wave Tuesday night early Wednesday.

So, let's play the model snowfall game. Here are all the models and their various solutions. None of these are true forecasts, but most of this raw data has been considered and integrated into the NWS forecast above. As I've stated, I'm more on the lower end of the guidance. Here we go.

The GFS

The EURO

The 12K NAM

The NAM 3K

The ICON

OTHER FACTORS...

Where snow falls, winds will be a moderate issue as they eventually peak in the 20-30 MPH range out of the northeast. This could certainly blow around the fluffier snow falls on the back end of the system.

Temperatures remain mild Tuesday with highs around freezing north to the low 40s south. By Wednesday readings will be significantly colder as highs hold in the teens with wind chills of zero to 10 below north. Once there mid-week, highs remain in the teens through Friday.

We may still see some minor changes in snowfall output as models get better analyzation Tuesday. However, I don't expect any major changes unless its to move the system even further south. That's where things stand for now. Roll weather...TS

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