WHAT'S UP DOC? CHAOS ABOUNDS

HEY FRIENDS, A SPECIAL MESSAGE

I would like to thank the 258 people who have stepped up to the plate and made a donation to fund the site through this December. This past year TSwails had over 600,000 sessions, meaning less than 1 donation per session. If you do not find value in the site or don't have the funds, I understand and still welcome you with open arms. For those of you here daily, who gain knowledge, or make financial decisions based on the information, I ask that you make a reasonable contribution. Every little bit helps. After much deliberation, I've decided that due to the daily commitment of time, money, and hard work, this will be the last year for the site if I don't reach my financial goal. I'm 67 percent there. The future depends on you. Thank you for your consideration and support the past 13 years. T. Swails

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THE GOLDEN AGE OF UNCERTAINTY

This may be the golden age of weather, but I'm seeing "certain" (uncertainty) in the long-range forecast. It all starts around the 17th when a major fight erupts between the EURO and GFS regarding temperatures. By the 20th, there's more than a 30-degree difference between the two, and that means there's a lot of noise and chaos regarding the evolution of the long wave pattern. It usually ends up with plenty of ifs, ands, or buts before the ship is righted. Just so you're aware, the water is going to get a little choppy down the road.

What I do know is that up until that time, there is reasonable confidence in what we are facing. So, let's start at the beginning and work forward. One step in front of the other. After a decent day Monday, a weak cool front will be through the region by daybreak Tuesday. A meager shot of cold air advection will limit much of a rise in temperatures following a mild night. Highs should end up in the low 40s north to the mid 40s south, along with a mix of sun and clouds.

Wednesday doesn't look much different, with similar temperatures but more in the way of sunshine as high pressure dominates.

Thursday gets a bit trickier due to a weak clipper that cuts across the region. The EURO has consistently produced a band of forcing across my northern counties that generates enough lift for some light precipitation in the afternoon and early evening. While thermal profiles will support snow north of I-80, surface temperatures should be in the range of 35-38, which greatly reduces the threat of any accumulations of more than 1/2 inch. Most of that would be on grassy and elevated surfaces, if at all. Bottom line, it's a very light and un-concerning event. Just a reminder, it's still winter, as if it was needed it. The EURO shows this.

After that, Friday through Sunday appears dry and on the mild side. Highs from north to south should reach 45 to 50 on Friday. 48-53 Saturday and 51-56 Sunday (the warmest since January 7th). There is a nice little system that chugs to the south Saturday and Saturday night, but aside from some high to mid clouds, especially in the south, it appears to be a nothingburger when it comes to rain. Another dry day in a string of them. Here's what it looks like Saturday evening.

That leads us into the 16th and 17th with the 500 mb storm track highly amplified thanks to the establishment of the negative PNA. Look at the ridge that the GFS has exploded over the east. The trough that's been established for nearly a month (causing cold NW flow from the Midwest east) has retrograded to the western U.S.

While in general agreement, the EURO is not as amplified, and you can see the difference below.

While the EURO brings a nice taste of spring, it's not nearly as toasty as the GFS. The GFS has readings up to 40 degrees above normal in my western counties by the 18th.

That pops a high of 73 on the latest run in the Quad Cities on the 18th, as you can see below.

On that same day, the EURO maxes out at 39 on the 18th and then declines after that to more reasonable levels.

So basically the war starts around the 17th and rages beyond that. Again, note that the GFS has 73 on the 18th in the Quad Cities, while the EURO, at 39, is 34 degrees colder. On the 24th, the GFS is still at 48, while the EURO is showing 26. So what's causing the fight? That's the million-dollar question that has to be resolved before peace can be rendered.

My thought (going back to the 500 MB comparison above) is that the GFS is probably too amplified with the eastern trough; the EURO depiction has a sympathetic trough over the northeast that makes more sense to me considering the overall pattern. That and the fact that the WPO is shown reversing from positive to negative at that time, dials up a jet stream alignment that looks like this. Suddenly you have a classic-looking negative WPO with that ridge in red west of Alaska. It still allows for troughing in the west, but opens the door to somewhat colder air pushing towards the Midwest, eating away at the strength of the east coast ridge. My hunch is that after the 17th or 18th, the warmth that peaks the 14th through the 18th is nudged a bit further east, potentially by a decent-sized storm around that time frame. We should see cooler readings, but how much so remains to be seen. Moreover, the trough in the west may reload, bringing another round of warmth after the 24th.

One thing I keep watching for is a wetter and stormier pattern tied to the western trough in roughly 10 days. The signs are still there if indeed it manifests itself. That said, trends are several days slower than late last week. Whatever happens, there is still quite a bit of doubt about where we will find ourselves in a week, but until then we are definitely going to be enjoying well above normal temperatures. Show me a 60+! Until next time, roll weather...TS ON A MORE SERIOUS NOTE, IF I DON'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 67% to my goal.

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