LESS STORMS, MORE HEAT - FOR NOW

terryswails1
Jul 20, 2025
2 min read

For the last several days the Ring of Fire pattern brought heavy rain and strong storms over the region. However, with time, a ridge will strengthen in the central US forcing the storm track and the heat northward. The good/bad news is we get a break from the storms but have to contend with the heat instead.

Models are consistent with temperatures pushing into the 90s through midweek. This will be coupled with high humidity with heat indices pushing into the 105°+ range.

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

The Euro for example shows the strengthening heat indices through the week. The peak looks to be Wednesday as Thursday a chance of storms begins to return to the area. By Friday, the overall pattern looks to break down leading to enhanced storm chances once again as the ring of fire sets back overhead.

RAINFALL REPORTS (Saturday Night/Sunday)

Waukee, IA - 4.40"
Princeton, IL - 3.75"
Richland, IA - 3.00"
Muscatine, IA - 2.75"
Colusa, IL - 1.96"
Fulton, IA - 1.78"
Shellsburg, IA - 1.75"
Freeport, IL - 1.51"
Clinton, IA - 1.21"
Davenport, IA - 0.58"
Moline, IL - 0.31"
Iowa City, IA - 0.27"
Cedar Rapids, IA - 0.26"

So far through July the much of Iowa into northwest Illinois is running well above normal in terms of precipitation. Areas along I-80 to the Minnesota border, for example, are 4"+ month to date. With rivers running high and soils quite saturated we certainly need a bit of a break from the heavy rainfall threat.

Across northern Iowa soil moisture levels are in the 70th-90th percentile with a few areas near record for this time of year. This is where flash flooding is of greatest concern and could be an area to watch late week into the weekend.

A return to active weather looks likely and it's starting to show in the ensemble guidance. The Euro shows some elevated rain chances Thursday into Friday, and again Friday into Saturday. This will likely be the next period to watch for heavy rain and strong storms.

Precipitable water values are forecast to surge into the 2"+ range which once again is a strong indication of very heavy rainfall wherever the storm track sets up.