LIFT OFF FOR THE HEAT...
Before we get to the coming heat, here's a recap of the severe weather that occurred in far southern Iowa, Missouri, and parts of central Illinois.
If you read my previous post yesterday, there were two key paragraphs about what I expected from Thursday's storms. The direct quotes read like this:
#1 The key to how this plays out is the location of the front when storm initiation occurs, which should be mid to late afternoon. Unless the front slows up, most of the storms north of I-80 would be spotty, post frontal, with minimal severe weather potential. Ahead of the front is where the real threat of potent storms exists. While it's possible a few isolated storms could be around during the morning, the real show holds off until mid-to late afternoon, when the CAP, suppressing widespread storms, breaks.
#2 The brunt of this event is likely to be near and south of I-80. The greatest overall threat seems to be even further south near and south of HWY 34 from Ottumwa to Burlington and over to Monmouth. Keep a close eye out if you are in this part of the region.
I bring this up because SPC (Storm Prediction Center) suggested severe weather as far north as Dubuque, with an enhanced risk as far north as HWY 30. As I stated 24 hours before, I did not see or expect severe weather north of I-80, and certainly was not in agreement with the enhanced risk as far north as Clinton and HWY 30. All my eggs were in the basket situated from HWY 34 south, which runs in an E/SE line from Ottumwa to Burlington. That was the location I was concerned about for large hail and damaging winds. I'm not always right, but hopefully my outlook with marginalized impacts to my northern counties was noted. We have enough in our lives to worry about, besides a severe storm threat that didn't exist across the northern half of my area. I know the intent from SPC forecasters was well-founded, (I have great respect for them). I'm just mystified as to why such an outlook was allowed to exist so far north of where the issues were likely to occur, when I could see it 24 hours before. That's all I have to say.
In the end, here's the recap from the NWS in the Quad Cities. Notice all the day's severe weather reports, as I surmised, were near and south of HWY 34. That included 3 inch hail (baseball size) near Keosauqua, 70 mph winds in Keokuk, and 2.71 inches of rain in 90 minutes near the Iowa border in SE Iowa.
Here's a picture of gorilla hail taken near Glenwood, Missouri, just south of the Iowa border. Wow!
This shot is of 4.5" diameter hail from chaser Hunter Hurley
That same hailstone compared to a baseball.
Late Thursday evening storm reports for the Storm Prediction Center.
The storm clusters over SE Iowa as they looked on GOES satellite imagery Thursday evening.
A BREAK AND THEN IT'S LIFT-OFF TIME FOR THE HEAT
Behind Friday's system, weak high pressure builds into the Midwest, providing sunshine but far less humidity, with dew points only in the low to mid 50s. That combined with highs of 80 north to 85 south will make for a typical mid-June day. Saturday, return flow kicks in, but late enough that little change is expected. Dew points may go up a couple clicks, but highs again should remain largely in the low to mid 80s.
Late Saturday night or early Sunday, a warm front swings into the region. The warm air advection it generates may produce some scattered storms, but they look progressive and should clear the entire area by Sunday afternoon. That gets the area into the warm sector, and it's up, up, and away for temperatures. Highs are likely to reach into the range of 90-95 with plenty of humidity.
Monday through Wednesday still looks to be a period where a heat dome will be situated close enough to the region to keep the majority of any thunderstorms to the north and west. That isn't to say a few storms couldn't pop up, but they appear to be widely scattered at this time. The more imposing aspect of our weather should be the hot, sticky weather that results. Highs will remain in the low to mid 90s, with dew points around 70. Heat index values could climb as high as 100, especially in the south. Heat headlines are likely for some.
Here's the upper air flow Tuesday at 500mb that transports the steam into the Midwest.
Here's the temperature departures the EURO shows for Tuesday, June 18th. That looks to be a scorcher!
CPC shows this for temperatures in the 8-14 day outlook. Overall, more above normal temperatures to close out the month.
My advice. Enjoy Friday, it looks to be a fine late spring day. In fact, it may be one of the best days we see the remainder of the month! Roll weather....TS
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