LIKE A HOUSE OF CARDS...
Since last Friday we've been meticulously building a house of cards here stacking day after day of beautiful weather. The base was built on a combination of sunshine and warm temperatures. But, as with all card houses, the higher you go the shakier it gets. It won't be obvious today but the top is leaning and the foundation cracking. Thursday night it all comes crashing down. Nice while it lasted.
A strong fast moving cold front is the final play that causes it all to collapse. The water vapor loop shows the cold dry air surging into Montana and North Dakota. Thursday night it's poised to enter Iowa and rest assured the party is soon to be over for this round of fabulous fall weather.
In this next animation you can watch the cold overspread the area. Temperatures Thursday afternoon go from 75-80 to 35-40 Saturday morning.
In just 24 hours time, temperatures drop more than 30 degrees in my area.
Along with the plunge comes gusty NW winds of 30 mph, instability driven stratus, and scattered showers. Here you can see the cyclonic nature of the showers Friday afternoon as they rotate around an amplifying upper air low digging into the upper Midwest.
You can even see the rain changing to snow Friday night in northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan. A similar situation would probably get some flakes into my area if it were a couple weeks later.
While some showers are likely Friday and Friday evening, they are likely to be hit and miss and light in nature. Here's what models are suggesting for rain totals.
The 3k NAM
Any lingering showers end Friday evening and some frost is possible by Saturday morning if clouds can clear by morning. Some of the hi-res models do show that potential along with diminishing winds. My feeling for now is the threat for any temperatures reaching 32 is low. Some areas in the north may come close, especially in the cold drainage areas known for producing cold pockets in NE Iowa and SW Wisconsin. Mesoscale details yet to be determined will ultimately settle the case. I do not see a killing freeze. The 12K NAM is the most aggressive with any frost potential Saturday morning.
Sunday should see improved conditions. Under mixed sun and clouds highs are expected to warm into the low 60s. However, Monday and what could be much of next week, cyclonic flow around a deep closed upper air low will continue to transport cool air into the region. Highs Monday and Tuesday may fall into the 50s, especially in the NE half of the region and remain there or the low 60s elsewhere thanks to this blocky 500mb pattern.
At least into Wednesday of next week, little if any rainfall appears likely after Friday's showers move out.
Like it or not, today is the day we say good-bye to the remnants of summer. Hold it, embrace it, or say good riddance if it makes you happy, the witch of October comes stealing tonight. So much for the house of cards. Roll weather...TS
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