LIKE HERDING CATS...
A MESSAGE FROM TSWAILS
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PLENTY TO THINK ABOUT...
The morning suite of models has cleared, but unfortunately there's nothing clear about the outcome other than they all have a wintry look. How they get there varies widely, and I suspect part of the issue is that the MJO is still in phase 7 and won't get into the cold phases of 8 and 1 until next week and beyond.
With a pattern change underway, there is significant chaos in mass fields and it is giving modeling fits. It's like herding cats! The idea of cold and some snow remains on the table, but not locally until next week, when we enter phase 8 of the MJO. With that in mind, it may be several more days until guidance gets a better handle on where the mean storm track sets up. The only way I can see to attack it is to show you the options available. If I see rational to support an idea (pro or con) I'll address it.
SNOW
Other than the fact any snow of consequence is still at least 5–6 days away, there is low confidence on track, timing, and placement of any storms. Despite these differences, the ensembles are in pretty good agreement on amounts. Again, ensembles are comprised of many members with different inputs. They produce a range of amounts, some high and others low. These are averaged out to come up with the numbers you see at a 10:1 ratio.
The EURO ensemble
The GFS ensemble
The Canadian GEM ensemble
Here's the operational models based on a singular solution. Snow ratios are based on temperatures and in a case like this will be typically higher due to considerations given for colder temperatures. For example, some could be 15:1 or higher. I've always been a big EURO fan, but the way things have been going, I can't weight it any more than the GFS or GEM. Confidence is even lower with the deterministic snow totals than the ensembles. Additionally, the GFS and GEM continue to show the "black hole" effect across Iowa and northern Illinois. That could have merit, as that's been the trend all winter long.
The EURO
The GFS
The GEM
TEMPERATURES
Temperatures are a little easier to assess, so confidence here is better, moderate as compared to low heading into the colder stages of the MJO. I think the EURO has the general idea, so I'm following its lead. These are its temperature departures in 5 day increments. Notice readings get progressively colder as the MJO gets deeper into phase 8.
Day 0-5 (February 6-11)
Day 5-10 (February 11-16)
Day 10-15 (February 16-21)
That's the big takeaways from the morning runs. We'll see if the trends hold next time around. Herding cats is tough work! Roll weather and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
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