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As a high-impact winter storm passes to the south just clipping our southern counties, cold air and a few light chances for snow will be building back in through the week as the most prolonged cold air of the season won't budge. Despite temperatures finally ticking above zero for many locations late Saturday, dangerous wind chill values continue to be in place especially in the morning hours. Monday morning (above) we again can see those values in the -20 to -25 range.

What's rather impressive about the Arctic outbreak is that we have a rather limited (if any) snowpack in the region and it still is quite cold! For January, lows with snow cover can be 16° colder on average than those nights when the ground does not have snow. February is even more extreme with a 17° difference in lows on average between those with and without snow cover.

Persistent northwest flow continues this week, and the storm track would favor a few chances for light snow with clipper systems in the coming days. The total accumulation will be limited and the confidence/predictability is very low due to the lack of strong upper-level support, but the overall upper air pattern supports it.

Notice the ridging to the west - we are starting to see signals that will begin to build eastward in early February which could break this cold pattern down.

The first snow chance this week could come with a reinforcing clipper Monday night with generally light snow. Most models, including the RRFS, indicate a light snow band. This would likely be accompanied by some blustery winds as well.

A secondary clipper is possible Wednesday/Thursday. Again, the takeaway here is the pattern can support clipper systems almost daily it's just a question of how, when and where. Either way the impact would be limited.

The Euro shows this warming trend with above normal temperatures in the not too distant future once we get through a rough stretch this week. Sub-zero lows are still on the table before we get that (much welcomed) relief. What helps that flip is (making it full circle) the lack of snow cover in the Midwest.

Teleconnections support this potential flip to some warmer weather. The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is a pretty good indicator as is steps back into positive territory. It does not stay that way, however with near neutral conditions into early February, so I think for now the Euro's much warmer temperatures seem a bit extreme.

The analogs for example are holding onto the eastern ridging a little longer, through Feb. 7, however this is far removed from where we are now. So changes are brewing, it's just a question of how long it will take for the pattern to finally flip in our favor.

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart