M'M M'M GOOD, TIL IT ISN'T

M'm M'm good! I'm not talking about Campbell's soup, (which I ate a lot of as a kid). I'm referring to Friday's weather, which saw temperatures hit the 80s in many spots. Those readings are more typical of what you would find in mid-July, not 3 months later, October 17th. Here's a sampling of some of the readings.

For a little perspective, below are Friday's temperature departures, (just how much readings were above normal). Impressive, if I say so myself.

It looks like we will pull another warm one out of the hat Saturday before a bit of a reality check Sunday and especially Tuesday of next week. Before we get to that, the first of two disturbances is on its way out of the region early Saturday. Overnight, it sent a weak front through the region, which was just strong enough to generate some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. For the most part, amounts were not shown to be heavy, although some totals greater than 1/2 inch were indicated in spots NW of the Quad Cities. Other areas might have missed out altogether.

What's left of the showers should advance out of the far southeast early Saturday, with the front turning stationary over northern Missouri. Here it will interact with a stronger wave of energy Saturday evening approaching from the northwest. This merger (known as phasing) will generate stout height falls at 500mb and induce strong cyclogenesis near St Louis early Saturday evening. With better moisture and strong dynamics, this part of the double barreled storm will have better chances of producing more substantial rains, especially over the southeast half of my area (or roughly the Quad Cities southeast).

Rain is not likely to develop until Saturday evening and since the bulk of the cold air is hung up until then, Saturday will be another very mild day. Temperatures in most areas should reach the mid to upper 70s, with an 80 possible in the far southeast. The GFS indicates this for highs.

Rain is expected to blossom Saturday evening as the phasing process rapidly accelerates. While a few thunderstorms are possible in the early evening, particularly over SE Iowa and WC Illinois, the track of the low keeps my area in the cool sector of the storm as it travels just SE of Chicago Saturday night. Models are indicating a deformation zone forming NW of the low that covers the majority of my region. Were this winter, this would be the area where heavy snow would develop. We won't need to worry about that, but a stratiform rain in its place could lay down beneficial rain totals. This is the tricky part of the forecast locally. Precisely where that low tracks will determine how far northwest the larger rain totals can advance into my area. Here's what models are suggesting for rain amounts, including what may have fallen Friday night. Notice there remains differences despite the event being less than 24 hours out, with a strong tendency for the heavier totals east of the Mississippi.

The EURO ensemble.

The GFS ensemble

The 3k NAM

The 12K NAM

The National Blend of Models (NBM)

By the tail end of the system, blustery north to NW winds should reach 30 mph tapping colder air. When the rains move out early Sunday, temperatures will be down in the upper 40s to low 50s, 25 to 30 degrees colder than 12 hours earlier. Don't say you weren't forewarned. Early risers can expect readings that look like this to start early Sunday.

Later in the day, skies will clear as the storm sweeps off to the northeast. With a brisk NW wind, highs should recover into the upper 50s north to the low 60s south. A fresh day to be sure.

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A 2ND COLD SHOT TUESDAY

Monday, ridging ahead of our next disturbance, will allow a nice bounce back day with highs returning to the upper 60s to low 70s with increasing clouds late in the day. Monday night, a vigorous cold front plows across the region. A few showers are possible along the front, but they look brief and light, most likely to occur north of I-80. That leaves us with a windy day Tuesday under strong cold air advection. Temperatures should remain nearly steady or even fall a few degrees, keeping us in the upper 40s to mid 50s the bulk of the day.

Things will calm down for a couple of days after that with a more seasonal brand of temperatures.

I'll leave it at that. Have a solid weekend and roll weather...TS