MAN, THAT WAS DELICIOUS...
- 35 minutes ago
- 4 min read
A SINCERE AND HOPEFUL MESSAGE
Friends and lovers of weather, it's imperative that you know I must reach my financial goal or it's time for me to hang it up after 50 years. I'm doing the best I can here to win your support, and rest assured there is no pleasure in asking for money. I get that its hard times and that's why I'm doing all I can to keep TSwails a no pay site. No matter what, I'm here through December, but the 14th year beyond is dependant on you. If you can help my cause, I'm making a humble plea for anything you can swing, it all adds up. Im $3,000 dollars (or 82% from my goal). Last but not least, I earnestly thank the 300 amazing individuals who have made such gracious contributions. You are all true treasures! Roll weather...TS
AS GOOD AS IT GETS...
Make no mistake about it, Monday was flat out as good as it gets this early in the season. Just an absolute beauty with Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, and Moline hitting 70 for the first time this year. From data I saw, I believe it was the earliest 70 degree high ever in Cedar Rapids and Moline. Daily records were broken in Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, and Moline. In fact, Moline destroyed the previous mark of 60 by 10 degrees! Delicious, I'll have another.
At their peak, temperatures were around 35 degrees above normal.
For perspective, the 70 in Cedar Rapids and Moline would be an average high May 5th, 2.5 months from now!
While no more records are anticipated, the mild temperatures will remain with us through Thursday. That said, a back door front will take a bite out of readings Tuesday, especially in the north where highs may remain in the mid 50s, hopefully not any cooler. The far south still has a crack at 60, but the general range should be 54 to 60 from north to south, or a good 10 degrees cooler.
Aside from the cooler temperatures, low pressure will take shape in NE Nebraska that will kick up the SE winds and send enough moisture in for some clouds. Late in the day and into the evening, a boundary (a glorified warm-front) will be in place near or just north of I-80. It may provide enough lift and moisture to develop some showers ahead of the triple point that advances into my northern counties by evening. It's not out of the question that a couple thunderstorms could develop but meager moisture will offset a pretty healthy low level jet. Just a small chance.
Even if we can get some rain going, it won't amount to much and most likely will be north and west of the Quad Cities. Here's what's shown on the models.
The EURO
The GFS
The HRRR
The 3k NAM
Once this system passes, another hot on its heels arrives later Tursday. It's looking like the surface low passes over Dubuque as it lifts through eastern Iowa. Ahead of it, subsidence should see to it that Wednesday is dry and mild with highs in the range of 58 to 64.
As the low appreoachs Thursday afternoon or evening, warm advection is expected to drive a period of light rain or showers that lifts north fairly rapidly limiting amounts. A dry slot also forms keeping the heavier deformation band precipitation to the northwest (nothing new there). In the end, a few spots could see up to 1/4" of rain. There is even a chance of a few snow showers wrapping in behind the low that could clip my NW counties towards Friday morning. No accumulations expected. However, that will not be the case further northwest where the EURO shows a nice slushy snow from the NW half of Iowa into SE Minnesota and NW Wisconsnin.
Without a doubt, this ends the mild temperatures with a significant cool-down in the works this weekend. The 500mb jet amplifies into NW flow and a far more seasonal brand of weather results.
This Sunday highs will be hard pressed to get out of the 20s and wind chills Sunday morning are shown down around zero to 10 above from north to south.
5 day average temperature departures February 20th to the 25 look rather nippy, especially after what we've just experienced.
The PNA (Pacific North American Oscillation) is projected to stay very much negative through early March. That tells me this burst of chilly air should be relagated to 5 or 6 days at most, and another round of warmth seems in the cards after that.
The GFS and EURO are both seeing new warmth develop. The GFS has this for temperature departures February 27th to March 4th.
Hopefully we can work some wetter storms into the pattern at some point but the next week precipitation amounts look below normal locally. In fact, the deep south is well below normal meaning the gulf is shut down for business. Time to do the rain dance and open it up!
That's the long and short of it for now. May the force be with you and roll weather...TS
ON A SERIOUS NOTE, IF I CAN'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 82% to my goal.
