MODERATE DROUGHT RETURNS

The latest drought monitor is out, and it should come as no surprise that moderate drought conditions have developed over my northern counties, an area that's had little if any rain the last five weeks. The remainder of my area continues in abnormally dry conditions, although some spots are on the cusp of entering official drought status.

Looking at the previous 7 days, no place in the state of Iowa reported any measurable rain through the evening hours of October 3rd. It was a far different story over the Ohio Valley, where the remnants of hurricane Helene produced some 4-6 inch totals.

Here's the past 30 days through Thursday evening, showing amounts around my region of 1/2 inch or less. EC Iowa was especially dry with several locations reporting no measurable rain.

Cedar Rapids has been one of the driest locations unable to squeeze out a drop of rain. As of Wednesday, the city has gone 34 consecutive days with no measurable rain. The last measurable amount was August 30th and here we are entering October 4th.

Now, before I get ahead of myself, there is a chance that by Friday morning a shower could clip Cedar Rapids along with other parts of the region ending the streak. What I'm watching Thursday night on the satellite image is some weak vorticity and warm air advection approaching from the SW. The green streamlines indicate dew points, which range from 58 near Kansas City to a mere 45 in Dubuque. The nose of the warm air advection may be strong enough to kick up showers, maybe even a few storms in the south, although CAPE and instability is quite low.

The way the situation is unfolding, it appears any showers in the north will weaken and fizzle overnight. The south is far more interesting as the 850 jet strengthens, allowing some of the warm air advection to punch into the region south of I-80. Hi-res models such as the HRRR and 3k NAM are indicating enough convergence in that area for more robust showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. I've noticed the EURO has begun to latch onto this scenario as well. The bottom line is after 2:00am or so, some bands of beneficial rain my move into my southern counties, especially south of I-80. Some fortunate spots could see up to an inch of rain. Unfortunately, north of there, little if any rain is indicated. Since the situation is just unfolding at the time of this post, it's hard to pinpoint the northern extent of the rain band as well as its intensity. However, for those of you in the south, the late night or early morning hours are likely to be somewhat wet. Here's what models are suggesting for rainfall totals.

The 3k HRRR...

The 3k NAM, heaviest but not out of the question.

The EURO

The GFS

By dawn, the rains will have shown their hand and should be moving south of HWY 34 and out of the region by mid-morning. By afternoon skies will have cleared or will be doing so in the SE, leaving us with another decent afternoon with highs in the range of 72-77 from north to south.

Saturday, a strong upper air disturbance will rumble out of the northern Plains into the upper Midwest. The region will be centered in the warm sector, with gusty SW winds up to 35 mph. The warm air advection taps unseasonably toasty air that should allow temperatures to reach the low to mid 80s, potentially a couple degrees warmer than that! Dew points won't be high but are shown increasing into the low 60s late afternoon. No doubt about it, we are in for a summery October day.

Saturday evening, a strong cold front sweeps the region. There is some potential for thunderstorms in the far north, with instability noted thanks to CAPE pushing 1,000 j/kg.

The negatives for most will be capping issues with 850 temperature of +18-20 degrees C. The warm air aloft is likely to thwart storm development south of HWY 20. Additionally, the better forcing is well removed to the north in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Sunday, winds have turned briskly to the NW, ushering much cooler and drier air into the Midwest. Highs will likely be confined to the 60s, with dew points crashing into the 30s. Summer makes a quick exit.

After that, dry seasonal fall weather is expected, with pleasant days and crisp nights through Wednesday. Readings will warm again after that as upper level ridging build back into the Midwest. If you missed out on the rain last night or early this morning, it could be another week or so before the next opportunity.

Happy Friday everyone and as always, roll weather...TS

PEOPLE LOVE IT. OUR AIRBNB IS A MOST LOVED GUEST FAVORITE!

ANOTHER 5-STAR REVIEW....thanks Myriam

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