MORE THAN FIT FOR A HOLIDAY...
Spotty showers and thunderstorms bounced around the area again Wednesday but as expected, were generally confined to areas south of I-80. The stronger updrafts put out some locally heavy rain in narrow swaths. Where it didn't storm, it was another warm sticky day. That's in the process of changing as cooler drier air sinks into the Midwest thanks to a building high pressure situated in Minnesota. By Friday its directly overhead.
That takes dew points, which have consistently been in the 70s for several days into the 50s Friday morning. That's a nice number for July.
It all means a warm but very comfortable start to the holiday weekend. Highs Friday and Saturday should be in the low to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. You can see the northwest flow in the jet stream that brings in the bubble of Canadian high pressure and its associated dry air.
By the 4th of July, the high has shifted southeast and return flow has commenced in earnest.
That will drive up temperatures and humidity levels. Note the dew points returning to the 70s in much of my area.
The bottom line is that Sunday (July 4th) and Monday will be good old fashioned summer days with highs near 90 with a nice helping of humidity. But the key for fireworks, parades, outdoor picnics, etc., is that it will be dry. There's virtually no threat of rain Friday though Monday. For that period the EURO shows this for rain totals.
The GFS tries to bring some rain in Monday but I think it's too fast and so I'm buying what the EURO is selling. Things could turn active and potentially stormy Tuesday-Thursday of next week as a front turns stationary near the area. The position of the front will hold the key to temperatures and just how wet it gets and where. It does look like there is some MCS potential which usually means somebody in the Midwest is likely to see some big rains.
In the meantime, we'll focus on the fine weather to come that looks more than fit for a holiday! Roll weather...TS