MR. CAN YOU SPARE A DROP...
Wednesday was just another warm dry day around the region. As expected, temperatures ended up in the upper 80s to low 90s. One noticeable change was the increase in moisture. Dew points climbed into the mid to upper 50s, not high but enough to make humidity a player. I broke down and fired up the air conditioner for the first time this year. Cha-ching! At least the dog was thrilled.
That concluded the month of May on a toasty note with Wednesday's high of 92 in Davenport the warmest of the month and the year so far. For May, the average temperature at the NWS in Davenport averaged 3 degrees above normal. It had some chilly moments though with a low of 33 measured on the 3rd.
Rainfall was just 2.42", roughly 2.30" below normal. After 2.00" the 7th and 8th, only 1 other day the remainder of the month saw rain. That was the 19th when .15" was measured.
When you look at the big picture, only 5 of May's 31 days saw measurable rain. If no rain falls Thursday, it will be the 13th consecutive day with no rain. That's not easy to do in late May.
SO MR.... CAN YOU SPARE A DROP OF RAIN?
As I mentioned earlier we have seen a slight shift in the ridge axis that has kept humidity levels low. Now the S/SE winds are finally tapping enough moisture that we might be able to scare up some widely scattered showers and storms Thursday and Friday afternoon. With surface temperatures remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s, CAPE (instability) is expected to reach the 1,000 j/kg level which along with limited capping, should at least bring spotty thunderstorms with the ability to produce isolated pockets of beneficial rain. However, because forcing is very weak these these are likely to be quite localized (random in nature) and most spots will see little if any rain. Here's to the lucky ones that get in on the action. If I had to pick a day where coverage was highest (say 30% of the area), I would select Friday.
This small threat is shut down again Saturday as the ridge axis retrogrades to the west. That brings lower humidity and kills instability. That leaves the weekend warm and dry.
Way down the road, I have seen some potential for a more focused rain potential beyond the next 10 days. At that time we are shown in a spot where we would be close to a nearly stationary front that would contribute forcing. Additionally, the low level jet is in position to enhance rain chances. This is out around June 14-15th so it's in what's known as fantasyland, resulting in a low confidence scenario. We'll keep an eye on it but at least there's hope for an organized rain system somewhere in the Midwest.
Up until that time, this is what the EURO shows for rainfall departures. All of the area in brown is expecting significantly below normal precipitation through June 9th.
Meantime, temperatures remain warm through the weekend. The NWS IDSS point forecast shows highs in the Quad Cities hovering near or above 90 through Sunday. Early next week with the trough retrogression occurring readings do cool some and that's attended by lower dew points. Pretty good weather by then unless you need rain.
I guess that's the nuts and bolts of it for today. Until next time, roll weather...TS
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