NEW DATA ON WINTER 26/27

New data has come in regarding the winter ahead. And, with the strongest Super El Niño in decades approaching its peak, the forecast now has only one close match among past Super El Niño winters: 1997/1998. If you don't recall, that winter was very mild across the north, yet it still delivered above-normal snowfall in several regions.

Clearly, compared to other super El Nino events (1982/83), (2015/16), this year most clearly aligns with 1997/98 at 500mbs. That makes it a strong analog to give us hints about what may lay ahead in coming months.

Below you can see the temperature and snowfall anomalies for 97/98, one of the strongest El Niño events on record. Temperatures show a large area of warmer-than-normal readingss across southern Canada and the northern half of the United States. The warmest anomalies were over the Upper Midwest and the northern Plains, while the Southwest was colder than normal.

Snowfall itself (right panel), was below normal from Kansas and Nebraska through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes due to the storm track being displaced across the south and the overall lack of cold air.

So, what you are looking at below is the pressure anomaly forecast for winter, which screams Super El Niño. The primary features are a low-pressure zone in the North Pacific and a blocking high-pressure over Canada, two features that are evident with every strong El Niño event. This year, low-pressure over the southern United States is even more amplified than usual. Here's what the 500mb jet anomalies look like for winter. High pressure dominates across Canada providing the blocking for low pressure and storminess in the blue shaded areas of the United States. Again, that looks like an amped up version of 1997/98.

Here's the latest European temperature outlook for December through February (winter). It's coolest across the south where storms and cloudiness are more likely to prevail.

A closer perspective shows temperatues locally that are 1 to 2, (perhaps as much as 3 degrees) above average.

The latest precipitation departures confirm the wettest areas are likely to be centered on the SW and eastern U.S. Otherwise mich of the remainder of the country (including the Midwest) comes in close to normal.

Snowfall is above normal over much of the central United States except in a small region extending from eastern Iowa into the Great Lakes. My area is shown to be about 1-4 inches below the norm. I will say, knowing the tracks of any major snowstorm is virtually impossible to define at this distance. Thus, it only takes one or two direct hits from a strong storm to skew the numbers substantially upward. Conversely, a miss north or south on those same storms would according lower seasonal totals.

In the end, there are usually some surprises in every winter, good or bad. Unfortunately at this distance mesocale details regarding individual storm tracks are essentially unknown. About all we can do is broadbrush the areas with the highest potential to see storms, which is precisely how precipitation and snowfall graphics are derived, it's simple probabilities. Temperature trends are typically easier to spot and therefore are higher confidence, especially in an El Nino winter.

In the end, I like the EURO's seasonal winter forecasts in both temperatures and snowfall. The trends depicted fit my analogs and general ideas. So it is that I expect a winter that is somewhat centrist. In other words close to normal. My hunch is slighty above average on temperatures, and slightly below the norm on precipitation and snowfall. There will be a winter, despite all the hype associated with the super El Nino. That's all I got! Roll weather...TS

By the way, if you are playing along, today's means of the EURO weeklies show this for snowfall between November 25th and December 26th. Still consistent, for what it's worth.