NIGHTMARE BEFORE CHRISTMAS

terryswails1
1 day ago
4 min read

After one of the coldest, snowiest first two weeks of December, the worst is behind us. We've been telling you there was light at the end of the tunnel and for those who believed, your faith is soon to be rewarded. Before I expound on the great flip of December 2025, here's what the average temperature departures look like around Iowa for the first 15 days of the month. Many places in the eastern half of the state are running 12–14 degrees below normal per day!

Snowfall has been just as impressive. These are the seasonal snow totals through the 14th, most of this coming November 29th through December 13th.

Near Ft. Dodge in northwest Iowa, 29.5 inches has come down. That is pretty epic. My friend Kevin Walters, not far from Marshalltown (Conrad to be exact) has measured 27 inches. Every single reporting station in my area has had more snow this year than all of last winter, and it's still officially not winter!

Since November 29th, 6 different winter storms have impacted my region. These are not in chronological order, but the majority of the snow shown came in a 14-day stretch, producing the totals I showed above.

So here we are, many of us dreaming of a white Christmas and for me, the dream has become a nightmare. All my wonderful snow looks to be gone by December 25th. This is what the EURO shows for snow depths Christmas day. Ugh.

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THE SNOW EATER...

So how do we get rid of so much snow so fast, we simply realign the storm track. Zonal flow, no doubt tied to La Niña, sets up across the nation with the addition of a ridge positioned over the central U.S. Here's the 500mb storm track shown December 20th to the 30th.

These are the daily temperature departures for that 10-day period, which of course includes Christmas. Me oh my, the cold is all bottled up in Canada. I think the chances are good it will be back, but not until sometime in January.

From tomorrow on, the GFS only shows one day with a high below freezing in the Quad Cities, the remainder of the year on Sunday the 21st. That would be a monumental achievement if we can accomplish such a feat.

The 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show this.

Not only does it look mild, it looks quiet. Moisture will be limited in the fast westerly flow and therefore after our next system Thursday, (mainly a light rain event) no significant storms are on the horizon. CPC shows all of the action over the western third of the nation, December 23rd through 29th. It looks good for holiday travel.

As you would expect with a moisture depleted atmosphere, most of the nation east of the Rockies is showing large negative temperature anomalies. Little rain and probably no snow.

Until we can destroy the vortex centered over Alaska, this is the sensible weather to expect. Again, by way of the animation, you can see in blue how a vortex just continues to gyrate and wobble over the southern coast of Alaska. That acts as a pump to spread mild air off the Pacific and across the continental U.S. That's a classic La Niña look that is actually overwhelming the MJO that's in phase 8, a phase that typically portends cold. The exceptionally warm northern Pacific waters (directly related to climate change) are winning the day and bringing us a major change in weather conditions. As I always say, if it can't snow, it might as well be warm. Watch the vortex spin near Alaska.

The last thing I will touch on is temperatures, which tomorrow through Thursday morning should climb above freezing for highs, perhaps as warm as the mid to upper 40s Thursday morning before a fast moving stinger brings a 24-hour blast of cold air. It brings lows into the single digits Thursday night. Fortunately, the cold is fast moving. After a set-back Friday, with highs hard-pressed to get out of the upper teens north to the mid 20s south, another burst of warmth gets highs back into the 40s Saturday. A quick dip is expected Sunday before a more sustained round of warmth builds

Ahead of the front, brisk south winds will tap enough moisture for some showers later Wednesday night into early Thursday. In general, rain totals of 1/4 inch or so are possible. It should remain all rain until the tail end of the event, when some brief snow showers are possible, mainly in the north. Behind the front, strong cold air advection produces gusty NW winds Thursday, along with falling temperatures in the afternoon. Gusts to at least 40 mph are likely. After a cold day Friday, a quick warm-up occurs Saturday before another 24 hour burst of cold Sunday. That appears to be the last decent shot of cold air for the remainder of December as mild air builds in during Christmas week.

Get ready, a new sheriff is coming to town. The nightmare before Christmas is underway. Roll weather...TS