NOTHING MORE THAN A HICCUP...
We've had a small interruption in our chamber of commerce November weather thanks to a fast moving disturbance. Overall, it won't be much more than a hiccup or two as the good stuff returns in full force later on this weekend and then dominates next week. The layout of the system provided the region with a stout temperature contrast Wednesday. South of a warm front, highs in SE Iowa and WC Illinois soared into the low to mid 70s. At the same time. my northern counties were stuck in the upper 40s with a heavy overcast and occasional drizzle. That followed some over night showers which produced up to 1/4 inch of rain in the north. Just look at the the 70s and 80s over the southern half of the Mississippi River Valley Wednesday afternoon. That is toasty
It was also rather muggy where temperatures were warmest. There dew points reached the mid 60s in Springfield, Illinois. That's mighty moist by November standards.
That created enough instability to pop a few thunderstorms along a cold front late in the day. You can see the anvils poking up on the hi-res GOES satellite.
Below you can see the lightning strikes measured Wednesday. Wisconsin was the focus for the greatest concentration of storms. That's a lot of strikes for November 8th.
Below you can see the broken line of storms attending the afternoon cold front. Rain was generally light due to the fast movement but some brief downpours were noted in spots.
Now that the front is through cooler air prevails into Saturday. Thanks to drier air sunshine returns as well. Highs will be in the general range of 50-55. A gusty NW wind will add a little chill too, especially if you are in the shade. Friday and Saturday the cool air deepens even more as high pressure builds into the upper Midwest. That could hold highs both days in the mid to upper 40s.
Return flow is on track for Sunday and that opens the door to another round of Indian Summer weather next week. Chilly nights but mild days are on tap with highs headed for the 60s by Tuesday. The 10 day temperature anomalies on the EURO indicate readings 13-15 degrees above normal "per day" November 12th-22nd.
You can certainly see the reason for the warmth by observing the 500mb jet stream flow November 23rd. That robust SW flow is sending in warm dry air out of the southern Plains. I could see a day where we might cluster highs into the range of 65-70.
Feast you eyes on the 6-10 day outlook from CPC. Relative to average, the warmest region in the nation is centered directly over the Midwest.
Another factor to note is that the GFS paints a very dry picture as well. Two week rainfall on the 0Z run is little to nothing.
You can see by way of rainfall departures how much of Canada and the northern half of the U.S. is well below normal on precipitation. I'm not sure we go a full 2 weeks without rain with that SW flow developing but at least for the next 8-10 days, rain chances look minimal.
Not much to say other than the period leading up to Thanksgiving looks to be a real yawner here in the Midwest. If you like your weather nice and quiet, this forecast is for you! Roll weather...TS
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