OLD SOL DOING HIS THING...
89% THERE, JUST A LITTLE MORE HELP
MY FUNDRAISER CONTINUES....
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ON THE WAY UP....
Since late December, "old sol", also known as the sun, has been inching his way higher and higher in the sky. The more direct rays and longer days have been having an impact recently, aiding in the production of multiple days in the 50s, with even some low 60s in the south.
This graphic obtained from the Iowa Mesonet, shows the average daily solar radiation for Davenport (follow the black line). You can see from January 1st to March 1st, how mean solar radiation more than doubles, going from 6 megajoules to 14. That number will steadily climb until reaching its peak around June 15th at 25 megajoules. The direct result will be a consistent increase in average temperatures, but a decrease in the overall extremes of those that occur over the next four months.
One thing you will notice is that the next 2-3 months remain transitional, with frequent temperature swings as the cold of winter inevitably gives way to the warmth of summer. In time, the longer days and increased solar radiation will eventually diminish the number of swings and the range within them. By June, temperatures will become consistently warm
By the way, we have already gained 1.5 hours of sunlight since the shortest day of winter back in December. I can really notice the longer days. Just 10 days from now (March 9th), daylight savings time begins, and the sun will set an hour later, close to 7:00pm. That will be a nice change no matter what the weather.
We've got a couple more mild days to enjoy before readings return to more seasonal levels this weekend. In fact, my southern counties (I-80 south) have a decent shot at 60 on Friday. The only problem with that is a whipping W/NW wind that should reach speeds of 35-40 mph thanks to a clipper streaking across northern Wisconsin. You can see the wind generated pressure gradient tightening over the upper Midwest late Friday.
Once by, the clippers cold front delivers a noticeable cool-down Saturday and Sunday. Highs will generally hold in the mid to upper 30s, but at least it will be dry. Another blustery day is anticipated Saturday before winds back down Saturday night.
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WHAT TO THINK...
Attention early next week turns to the energy which ejects out of the SW before making a turn towards the central Midwest. We are still in the early stages of defining phasing, which will ultimately determine the intensity and track of the storm, (phasing being the amount of interaction that takes place between the northern and southern branches of the jet). Yesterday, the EURO was aggressive, developing a strong storm that its ensembles showed plowing a track NE close to Chicago.
Tuesday morning, the 12z ensemble still showed a formidable system, but it was further NW, approaching the Quad Cities instead of Chicago. The NW shift was important as it meant the cold sector of the storm largely passed to the west, with the majority of the precipitation being rain, maybe a brief changeover at its conclusion. The earlier track further SE towards Chicago implied more dynamic cooling with a greater chance of rain changing to snow that could accumulate, especially in the NW half of my area.
12 hours later, the 0z EURO ensembles have cleared, and they've pivoted back to the east, with a track closer to Chicago. They say in the weather biz, "the trend is your friend". Maybe, maybe not. Below is the latest EURO with a sub 988mb low situated over Chicago.
See the shift east from the morning run when it was clustered near the Quad Cities.
In comparison, the latest ensembles of the GFS show a potent 982mb surface low somewhere in the proximity of the Quad Cities Tuesday night. That type of solution would be warmer, mainly a rain event with perhaps some thunderstorms in my southeastern counties.
I think the big takeaway currently is that cold air is limited, which significantly hurts snow potential locally. However, the EURO solution still keeps open the door to dynamic cooling, which could produce a deformation band where a transition from rain to accumulating snow occurs, especially over eastern Iowa Wednesday. Confidence is low on any solution at this distance, so all we can do is monitor trends in coming days.
Of more importance is the potential for precipitation of any kind. It's been a very dry winter across the board. This system certainly has the dynamics to produce 1/2 to 1 inch of liquid. One thing that makes it questionable for my region is the proximity of the track. There is likely going to be a dry slot close to wherever the surface low decides to go. That could substantially cut into amounts in that location. On a positive note, a healthy band of precipitation is likely in the deformation band if any part of my area can catch it. Currently, my NW counties seem to have the best chance with the track towards Chicago the EURO is favoring. You can see that in the precipitation totals the EURO is indicating Tuesday through Wednesday from the Mississippi west.
The GFS has a track near the Quad Cities but shows the dry slot well to the west in Iowa instead of up the spine of the Mississippi. That's a bit questionable. For what it's worth, here's the GFS precipitation totals.
I will end by saying next week's system has the potential to be a healthy storm. We are so close to the track that it would not be surprising if some part of my area saw a thunderstorm, while further NW some wet snow falls. Temperatures could also show a hefty range of 20 degrees from NW to SE as well. It's all dependent on the track, so until we firm it up, there's no sense in speculating anymore. Have a delightful day. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
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