ON THE STRAIGHT AND NARROW...
THE TSWAILS GUARANTEE...
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WHAT $12 CAN BUY
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A MESSAGE FROM TERRY...
Dear friends of the site, I still need some help. My 2021 fund raiser to keep TSwails.com going is a bit short of where it needs to be. Despite 375 voluntary $12 dollar donations I still do not have my operating expenses covered. My $12 dollar asking fee is the cost of a pizza or a dozen donuts. Those are gone in a day, TSwails.com is here for you all year long. It's a heck of a value and all I'm asking is that if you enjoy the site and see value in it, that you please consider a voluntary subscription. I'm asking $12.00 dollars a year. That's $1 dollar a month or 3 cents a blog if you consider the fact there were 450 posts issued over the past year. The site requires a significant commitment of time and resources, every donation, whatever the size is deeply appreciated. I just need a little help to cover the expenses. If in any way you are unsatisfied with the content of TSwails, you can take advantage of my unconditional refund. Click on the link below if you can help the cause or need additional information. I thank you for your support and consideration. Terry
HOW DRY WE ARE...
The latest drought index is in the house and despite a dry week shows little change from the previous week. Abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions continue to prevail near and north of I-80 with the worst areas in EC Iowa and NW Illinois
Dry as it is in the northern half, it is substantially better than 2 months ago when moderate to severe drought was prevalent over the northern 2/3rds of the region.
A remarkable contrast in rainfall continues to exist across my area as it has all year. Since January 1st. deficits in my northern counties of 5-11 inches exist while just south of I-80, surpluses of 5-11 inches are common. A complete flip flop exists along that corridor.
After some very beneficial rains in October, we've reverted to a dry pattern in all areas. Here in the Quad Cities measurable rain has fallen on just 3 of November's 21 days. Most of the months .42" precipitation total occurred on just one day. A very quiet 3 week period to be sure in terms of precipitation.
This pattern we are in does not appear to break anytime soon and the GFS shows little to no rain over the next 16 days to close out the month of December.
Over the next 2 weeks rainfall deficits up to 1.20" are project on the GFS. This is a really concerning pattern that I hope is not representative of what the coming winter will be like as a whole. It is possible, but not likely if my expectations materialize. If not, I am going to bust and I will pay the price for sticking my neck out. I will be very disappointed if it comes to that.
Now that you know we have no meaningful precipitation in the forecast for the next 10 days, I will focus on temperatures. They have been vacillating wildly the past 2 weeks and that's a trend I see continuing with the progressive flow that's remains in place. Until troughing is displaced from Alaska this is our future (along with dry weather). Here is what the EURO ensembles show for temperatures the next 15 days.
Highs Saturday should peak near 50 before we dip to the low 30s Monday. By Wednesday we soar back into the 50s and Thanksgiving day we've returned to the mid 30s. We go back up again after that and may actually stay mild into the first week of December. It's beyond this point that I'm watching for the MJO to exert it influence and rock the boat.
The MJO long range forecast is showing a move towards phase 7 around December 5th or 6th. If that happens the door opens to much colder air masses and increased precipitation chances. This is about 7 days later than models were indicating last week but that's the atmosphere. It has no regard for my plans! I'm fine with that as long as it eventually gets the job done early in December.
Here's a closer view of what the analogs for phase 7 in December bring for temperatures and precipitation in December.
Well, that's all I have for now. Have a delightful (make that delicious) weekend on me. Thanks for your time and if you appreciate the site please consider a donation by clicking the link below. The future of TSwails is in your kind and caring hands. Roll weather...TS