PARDON THE INTERUPTION...

October has a long history of being one of those months that contains good, bad, and the ugly, sometimes all in one day. The transition from summer to winter is well underway with average highs going from the mid 60s to start to the low 50s by months end. Most years see several days in the 80s with the caveat being that freezing temperatures, frost, and at least a trace of snow is likely by the time November rolls around.

We've enjoyed an exceptional warm spell recently that belies what can happen when we eventually turn the tables. Steve Gottshalk, my climate guru tells me that Lowden, Iowa experienced 7 consecutive days , April (6th to the 12th), where he recorded an average daily high of 83.4 degrees. That's 17.4 degrees above the normal of 66.0. The 3 day period the 10th-12th, his average high was 87.7 degrees. That's 22.4 degrees above the normal of 65.3 degrees.

About the only year that can whip that for warmth is 1997. For comparison, both years had 7 day warm spells with 80 degree temps. but this year's occurred a little later from the 6th-12th compared to 1997's 2nd-8th. 1997 had two 90 degrees days, including a blistering 95 on the 3rd and 90 on the 5th. This year our warmest reading was 89 on the 12th. The average high temperature for 1997's warm spell was 87.3 compared to this year's 83.4.

Incidentally, 1997 was also impacted by a strong El Nino much like we are seeing this year. One thing I've noticed is that in potent El Nino years, if there is going to be cold and snow, it's usually font loaded occuring in the period late October to Christmas. In fact, in 1997 an early snowstorm the 26th deposited 4.0" of wet, heavy snow.

I don't see that happening this October, but I would not rule out some early bursts of cold (and potentially snow) in November and December. While it won't last long, significantly colder weather is already on the move and will plow into the area Thursday night and Friday with strong winds and the possibility of frost by early Saturday.

Looking at the surface pattern late early Friday, note the packing of the isobars (lines of equal pressure) over the central Midwest. A very tight gradient exists over the region with a 1043mb high over Colorado and a 1002mb surface low over Lake Erie.

That is a wind machine if I ever saw it and NW gusts of 40-45 mph are a real possiblity. That will rock the house and send temperatures plummiting. The NW winds should explode Thursday evening when the strong cold air advection arrives continuing in earnest into much of Friday. Temperatures Friday morning will have dropped into the low to mid 40s and remain nearly steady much of the day. At 1:00pm Friday the GFS shows readings ranging from 45 north to 50 in the far south.

Around that time wind chills of 35 to 40 are in play with those howling 40-45 mph gusts.

Friday night that big old 1042 high moves overhead allowing winds to rapidly decouple. Clearing skies and dry air will set the table for temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s. Dew points, for the first time this season may dip into the upper 20s in spots.

Depending how fast winds drop off, some temperatures in the north may reach 32 early Saturday with 33 to 37 the general range shown on the GFS. A frost advisory or some sort of headline is likely to be issued for at least the north by the NWS at some point.

Saturday, the high pressure center drifts southeast allowing winds to veer to the S/SW. It initiates another warm-up that following a day of low to mid 50s Saturday, brings 60s back to the region Sunday. A few readings close to 70 are possible by next Tuesday and Wednesday before readings plunge again late next week.

Before the big blast of wind and cold, another system with a tropical connection brings the threat of rain and embedded thunderstorms later Wednesday night and Thursday. (That's following some hefty rains that fell Tuesday night, particularly over parts of far SE Iowa and WC Illinois). The current alignment of the next system once again points at the area near and southeast of a line from Washington, Iowa to the Quad Cities and on to Sterling Rock Falls. Some spots in the far southeast could pick up more than an inch. Lighter amounts in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch range are expected NW of the Quad Cities. Here's what the EURO in depicting for totals Wednesday night and Thursday.

With the arrival of the strong cold front later Thursday the rain ends thanks to the push of cold, dry air. Those stiff NW winds will scour out any rain threat after that through next Wednesday.

To summarize, Wednesday looks uneventfull with mostly cloudy skies. Readings will be cooler with E/NE winds holding highs to the mid to upper 60s. Thursday, ahead of the front rain and possible storms are expected with highs cooled by precipitation and heavier clouds. Low to mid 60s look warranted. Thursday night, the cold front lights up the winds and sends temperatures crashing leading to a blustery and very raw day Friday. Early Saturday is the time to watch for any frost or freeze headlines.

All I can say is that some of that wild October weather is in the works the next 72 hours. By Friday, rest assured you will be well aware that we're are on borrowed time with winter rustling to life over northern Canada. Fortunately, this shot is brief but it should serve a a wake up call. Sorry for the interuption! Roll weather...TS