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PAY NOW, ENJOY LATER...

I REALLY NEED YOUR HELP TO MEET OPERATING EXPENSES

THE FUTURE OF THE SITE DEPENDS ON YOU. 

Hi everyone, as you know, TSwails.com is a no-pay site; existing on voluntary subscriptions or personal donations. If you find value in the site, I'm asking kindly that you make the donation you feel is worthy. I'm suggesting $20.00, roughly a nickel a day. Less than 5% of my readers donate, so your gift is not only appreciated, it helps immensely. Your contribution, whatever you can swing, supports the content, infrastructure, and operational costs. Thanks for anything you can do!


ENOUGH TO TRACK A CAT...

Last night, some healthy snow fell on our compadres up north, where more than a half a foot came down in spots. Huron, SD knocked off 8.8 inches and the National Weather Service in Minneapolis measured 7.

For my area, this was mainly a rain event, although a bit of wet snow grazed the far north as the system wound down. Just north of the surface low, rain amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch were common, with some spots further north receiving more than an inch. Even better, where the rains fell, little if any frost was in the ground, so the moisture was absorbed. That's tough to do this time of year. These are Doppler rain estimates from Wednesday night.

Behind the system Thursday, ample sunshine was found, but a brisk NW wind over 30mph made for a crisp day. It also brought in colder air, which will lead to our next system being a snowmaker. That said, the clipper is a fast mover that's encountering dry air. Thus, snow amounts will be light and the NE third of my area may not see any snow at all.


At this point, the snow looks to fall mainly during the morning hours of Friday before passing out of the region from NW to SE. With temperatures no higher than the upper 20s to lower 30s Friday, there are likely going to be at least minor travel issues, especially across the SW half of the area where some 1 to 2-inch amounts are likely. For most, (particularly north of I-80) this will be a minor event with just enough snow to track a cat. You will notice a sharp cut-off to the northern edge of the snow shield, where it hits a wall of dry air. Here's what various models are indicating for totals. As always, these are not forecasts, just raw model output that forecasts are derived from. Before I get to the models, this however is the official NWS forecasts. I will say based on what I have seen late Thursday night that this it too far north and should be adjusted a good 40 miles southwest. I don't see much north of HWY 30.


The official NWS forecast


The HRRR

The EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM

The GEM

The SREF ensemble mean

Once the snow ends, much colder air makes a quick surge into the region Friday night and Saturday before making a hasty retreat Sunday. Check out these lows Saturday morning.

And these are the Saturday morning wind chills. Sleep in!

Following highs in the upper 20s to low 30s Saturday, readings will surge into the mid to upper 40s Sunday. A very nice recovery and the start of a lengthy warm-up.


PAY NOW, ENJOY LATER...

Once we get into next week, NW flow is firmly established with rather uneventful weather but some healthy temperatures swings before we can establish more of a SW flow towards month's end. Even with a couple respectable cold fronts, overall temperatures will remain well above normal through March 1st. Here's the week 1 temperature departures ending February 22nd.

Week 2 departures ending March 1st are even better.

Here's the 10-day precipitation departures until roughly the end of February. Lots of high pressure and dry air.

So basically, this forecast is front loaded with what snow we will see and the brunt of the cold all coming in the next 2 days. After that, things are trending more springlike. As the saying goes, pay now or pay later. I say pay now and "enjoy" later. Anyway, that's the plan Stan. Happy Friday and roll weather...TS Additionally with my recent health issues, I very much need to reach my fund-raising goals. To keep things as they are, I'm in humble need of your donation to the site more than ever. If you use it and find value in it, please consider a contribution. Thanks to you who have already helped the cause!

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