REFRESHING TIMES...
Near record lows greeted many of us Monday morning with high pressure perched over the upper Midwest. Thanks to the combination of light winds dry air overhead, the table was set for lows to dip into the low 50s. Some local spots in EC and NE Iowa even reached the 40s. Monticello went all the way down to 46. In Cedar Rapids the low of 51 was just two degrees off the record of 49 set in 1927.
Conditions are once again very comfortable Tuesday morning. Here's the NW flow aloft that's delivering the nice temperatures and dry conditions.
Here's the available water vapor Monday. The deep moisture is suppressed far to the south.
Moisture levels of this caliber are about half what's typical at this point in the year. These are the departures.
Our comfortable weather pattern will be with us through Thursday and then it looks like a more seasonal brand of weather returns for the weekend. That includes warmer temperatures, increased humidity, and at least a chance of scattered showers and storms.
In my area, the first opportunity for rain comes Thursday night or early Friday as a return flow of southerly wind generates warm advection. I'm not holding my breath on much in the way of rain from but if it happens in this scenario my far northwestern counties, closer to HWY 20 have the best opportunity of seeing anything meaningful.
That passes and another rain chance arrives late Saturday night or Sunday. Here's what the EURO and GFS indicate for total precipitation Thursday through Sunday. I think the EURO may be on the high end of amounts and I would lean more towards the GFS solution at this early juncture, especially in the south.
The GFS
The EURO
Humidity becomes an issue Friday and Saturday and lasts into early next week. I'm expecting dew points to get back into that beefy range of the upper 60s to mid 70s during that period. Heat index values will steadily climb and beginning Saturday and into Sunday we should experience uncomfortable levels around 95-100, perhaps even higher than that by Monday. Actual highs Saturday into Tuesday of next week should peak in the upper 80s to low 90s. The dog days of summer return.
However, until the steam returns late week we've got more fine summer weather to enjoy. Bring it on. Roll weather...TS
