RIDING THAT TRAIN...

Back in early September we boarded the love train and while we've had to refuel a couple of times, we haven't yet reached the end of the line for our exceptional journey with beautiful weather. Only 1 of the last 34 days have we seen a high below normal, and we missed reaching that by just 1 degree October 8th. Below you can see the observed highs vs normal at the International Airport in Moline for September and October so far.

September 2015

October 2025

After that incredible run of warm dry weather in September, October has picked up right where September left off. So far, many places through the 13th are having an October that ranks in the top 3 or 4 (or better) for overall warmth. In the graphic below you can see this years average temperature in Moline is 65 degrees, that's on par with 1963. If we can remain above 1963's final average of 64.35 degrees, this year would be the warmest October on record in Moline, Illinois. Data goes back to 1871.

My climate guru, Steve Gottschalk says that based on his records of the 10 warmest (first 10 days of October), there is a 90 percent chance the remainder of the month temperatures will average normal to above normal. Indeed, the Climate Prediction Center shows a good chance that temperatures in the 8-14 day outlook will remain above normal across the central U.S.

The 10 day temperature departures on the GFS look like this through the 29th of October.

The EURO is in pretty good agreement.

We may not end up getting the record but it sure looks like we have a shot at being a contender. Time will tell.

Meantime, here's what the EURO is showing for highs through Saturday at the NWS office in Davenport, Iowa. That's pretty meaty for mid-October.

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REGULAR RAIN CHANCES, SAY WHAT?

Between now and noon Sunday, will come the chance of some periods of showers or even thundershowers. A few of these spotty showers could develop as early as Tuesday but these look isolated. Tuesday night and early Wednesday there's another opportunity with a third shot Wednesday night and early Thursday. Friday night sees a short window ahead of a front which stalls shortly after passing. A wave is then shown along that Saturday night that could ignite another round of rain. None of this looks particularly heavy but between the 5 opportunities that currently are shown, the amounts could add up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch, which we could very much use. The EURO shows the odds of a half inch or more at 40 to 60 percent.

Odds of 1/10 of an inch or more are 90 percent over most of my area but the far southeast.

The ensembles of the EURO show this for total rain amounts through noon Sunday.

The ensembles of the GFS indicate this for the same period.

After the rain threat moves out a healthy trough is carved out over the Midwest on the EURO. This will no doubt lead to a cool-down with daytime highs Sunday in the upper 50s north to low 60s south. Low clouds and brisk NW winds should accompany the fresh change.

The cooler weather retreats Monday and most spots should reach the upper 60s to near 70 under sunny skies. Tuesday readings soar into the range of 75-80 as we sit in the warm sector awaiting our next front and our next rain chance. You can see how the ridge quickly pops back after Sunday's trough quickly shifts east.

After that, the pattern gets rather progressive with energy regularly ejecting out of the large SW tough. That keeps temperatures fluctuating up and down in the long range with systems coming and going. This should also bring some additional rain chances. Actually, the energetic nature of the storm track is likely to make for a challenging period of forecasting with regular changes. Fall might just be waking up. If so, it's about time. Meantime, we're still riding that train! Roll weather...TS.