RINGING IN THE WEATHER OF 2023...
2022 certainly had its share of weather extremes. Wet periods, dry periods, but especially dramatic were the temperature swings. Some of the most impressive were saved for the end of the year. Take a look at this meteogram showing December temperatures at the NWS office in Davenport. We took the Arctic plunge before Christmas and after of low of 3 below the 27th, soared to a high of 64 just 36 hours later on the 29th.
Saturday, the final day of 2022 is expected to be mostly cloudy and cool. Highs should get back to the upper 30s north to the mid 40s far south. Later in the day and into New Year's Eve a quick shot of warm air advection may kick up a few showers, especially NE of the Quad Cities. Thermal profiles aloft might just be cold enough to get a a brief period of snow or a mix of rain and snow going for a time. Amounts are currently expected to be light and the precipitation brief. With readings near or just above freezing, no significant problems are expected on area roads.
New Year's day we are back to dry conditions with temperatures a little warmer. Look for highs in the range of 44 north to 54 south Not a bad way to start 2023.
RINGING IN THE NEW YEAR WITH A HEALTHY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT...
Early next week the focus turns to a significant storm that has the potential to bring a good rain and another burst of warm air. My area will most certainly be in the warm sector which ensures rain falls for the majority of the event, maybe a bit of snow at the tail end of the system. Confidence is much higher today on the track with the EURO and GFS now in good agreement on the surface low cutting NE through Iowa Tuesday.
Such a path combined with strong dynamics and abundant moisture, sets my area up for some winter downpours, maybe even some thunder and lightning. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to over an inch are possible across much of the region. Due to slight differences in model guidance the band of heaviest rain remains a bit uncertain and is likely to become clearer in the next 24 hours. The EURO is heavier than the GFS indicating precipitation totals Monday night into Wednesday that look like this.
The GFS has more of a dry slot and is less aggressive on amounts showing this for rain over the same period. Still a decent rain event by January standards.
The storm track to the west of my region also allows another thaw, this time a January thaw. Highs Tuesday have the potential to reach into the 50s in all locations with some readings around 60 in the southeast. The EURO depicts this for highs.
The GFS is in good agreement indicating readings like this.
Temperatures such as that are a good 30-35 degrees above normal. That means 2023 picks right up where 2022 left off with the big temperature extremes!
Next weeks storm does have a snowy side but the worst of it stays well NW of my area. This is what the EURO and GFS show for snow totals. While a dusting is possible in the north late Saturday afternoon or evening, most of what is shown would not occur in my area until late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Even that is likely to amount to an inch or less in most locations.
The EURO
The GFS
As is usually the case, colder air will follow the system the middle and later parts of next week. Overall highs should remain in the 30s next Wednesday through Friday.
That's the long and short of it this last day of December, 2022. Make it a good one and an even better 2023. Also, thanks for putting your faith in TSwails.com as a reliable weather source. I put my heart and soul into the product and your trust means a great deal to me. Roll weather...TS
