ROCKETMAN GOES HUNTING

The next 10 days, my award-winning weekend meteorologist and site contributor Nick Stewart will be taking a break from his regular job as a rocket launch specialist at NASA. He will be on the hunt for tornadoes during his annual "Chasecation," or storm chasing vacation. The next two weeks will take him from the Canadian border to Mexico in the Central U.S. as he hunts for the most dangerous and photogenic severe weather the country has to offer. Aside from his regular weekend posts, he'll be giving updates on his adventures in storm country. From gorilla hail, to vibrant rainbows, haboobs, and tornadoes, the man has a knack for finding and documenting natures most extreme and compelling weather events. Keep an eye out for his chasecation reports right here on TSwails. Did I mention he's the tallest storm chaser in the world!

HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

I came in to write this post thinking it would be pretty straight forward. Earlier in the week, there were big discrepancies between the EURO and GFS regarding rain this holiday weekend. The EURO has said consistently "no" to the idea of wet weather. The GFS was very much on the rain wagon until 24 hours ago, when it flipped to the EURO idea of a drier look. That was a big confidence booster. Now, at the last moment it's back on with wet weather, especially Saturday night and Sunday and again Memorial Day Monday (mainly south). Much to my chagrin, this has brought unwanted doubt into the forecast. Honestly, I was not expecting this latest twist.

Simply put, everything rides on the strength of a Canadian high pressure that is building south into the Great Lakes. The EURO allows enough dry air to keep the baroclinic boundary and deeper moisture just far enough to the southwest to keep only a small chance of a showers late Saturday night and early Sunday. Saturday is dry and so is Monday, meaning the majority of the holiday weekend is too, including Sunday. That said, there may be periods of passing clouds that could limit highs to the 60s all three days. This is the solution I've been favoring.

The GFS is not as aggressive with the dry air and allows saturation to occur throughout my area. As a result, it spreads rain into the region later Saturday night and Sunday. That exits, and another round is shown Monday, particularly across the south. The addition of heavier cloud cover and precipitation brings some very cool temperatures, with the GFS holding readings Sunday in the upper 40s to low 50s in many areas.

WHAT TO DO

What to do? The ensembles of both models are consistent, lending little help there. I think the fact that the EURO has been so consistent makes it a far more reliable solution, and so I like its idea of little if any rain. Additionally, the Canadian 10k GEM and NAM look very similar to the EURO. I will give the GFS a small amount of love though and push small rain chances Sunday morning further north into my southwestern counties. However, if they materialize they should be light I will confine them to the early morning hours. Maybe the GFS will find a bone, but its inconsistent nature leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to confidence in its idea.

Just look at the difference in rain totals through Monday evening on the EURO verses the GFS.

The EURO

Compare that to the GFS below. That is a very significant difference less than 24 hours from the onset of the event.

The GFS

Look at the difference in temperatures Sunday. First the EURO.

Now the GFS, which is 19 degrees cooler in the Quad Cities at 4:00 p.m. Sunday than the EURO

I might get crushed here, but I am heavily leaning on the EURO and its drier scenario and more moderate temperatures in the range of 60-70 through Monday. No sense jumping ship with the evidence favoring the EURO. I'm hoping like heck I get this one right, cause if the GFS wins this battle, Sunday and Monday will not be pleasant. GO EURO....roll weather and have a terrific holiday weekend whatever the outcome...TS

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