A BARN BURNER FRIDAY...
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A FINAL PERSONAL APPEAL
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YOU ASKED FOR IT, AND SPRING LISTENED.....
March is far from perfect, but the power of the sun is undeniable, its strength evident in the recent uptick in our temperatures. So far, 9 of the 12 days have been above normal, with at least 2 more days guaranteed this week. If things go well, Friday is a day that could reach records, with highs destined to climb into the mid to upper 70s. You asked for warmth, and spring listened!
In the big scheme, a progressive pattern looks as though it will remain intact the next 2 weeks. The negative PNA prevails, and that implies a ridge over the east and at least 3 strong systems that eject from the southwest. You can see below how each disturbance sends a surge of mild air (potentially showers and storms) that is followed by brief but noticeable cool downs until the next storm reloads. The EURO indicates 3 individual periods where highs are shown reaching into the upper 60s to 70s. The duration of the warm air is significantly longer than the cool shots that follow.
The GFS is not as bullish, but the general trend of 3 warm spikes and above normal readings is still there.
Breaking it down, these are the temperatures departures for the next 7 days ending March 19th.
The following week, March 18th through the 27th, the 7-day departures look like this.
FRIDAY, WARM AND STORMY TO END...
The next big shot of warmth with record-breaking potential comes Friday, when highs are shown reaching at least the mid to upper 70s. An 80 is not out of the question in the south. Feast your eyes on these numbers!
These are the associated departures, which could end up being a few degrees higher at 30 degrees plus.
A PRICE TO PAY...
The warmth ahead comes directly from a powerful storm system approaching from the Plains. Ahead of it, a 130mph 500mb jet max is shown, sending the warmth and moisture into the Midwest.
Moisture is limited to start Friday, but rapidly improves by evening with the potent jet transport. PWATs reach nearly 1.40 inches on the EURO in SE Iowa around 8:00pm.
That fosters decent instability by early March standards, with CAPE reaching 1,200 to 1,400 j/kg. 0-6km shear reaches at least 65 knots which is impressive, however it's uni-directional which is not optimal for tornadoes.
It's likely that storms undergo explosive develop late Friday afternoon and rapidly grow linear (into a squall line). Initially, a couple discreet supercells could form with tornado potential. However, damaging winds and potentially some hail would be the primary threats after that, although some brief QLCS tornado spin ups are very much a possibility. The storms will be fast moving, up to 60 mph, and won't be in any one place long. As a result, rain totals should generally be light to moderate, despite some brief but intense downpours. Notice at 5:00pm how the capped atmosphere is breaking in SW Iowa, where storms are erupting.
Storms quickly reach severe limits and race east as strong forcing encounters the instability towards evening. By 8:00pm Friday, the 3k NAM shows a line of potentially severe storms arching through the heart of my area, having crossed much of Iowa in 4 hours time. That produces the classic bow echo signature below, known to be associated with powerful winds. Gusts of up to 75 mph are possible in the strongest updrafts.
The next graphic depicts maximum updraft helicity tracks, where rotation is evident in the paths of the strongest convective cells. A strong concentration is centered on WC Illinois, which at the very least points to an area where damaging winds would be possible.
The lightning flash density product on the EURO shows convectively driven storms streaking from eastern Iowa into WC Illinois Friday evening.
I think there is a high chance that at least some part of my area goes under some sort of severe weather watch Friday, with a tornado watch possible in my southern counties. For now, SPC has upgraded its severe weather threat to moderate (level 4 of 5) as far north as the Quad Cities. An enhanced risk extends from there into the rest of my area north of I-80.
Here are the odds of a severe wind gust within 25 miles of a given point Friday. From the Quad Cities south, the upgrade has now increased odds to 45-60 percent. That includes a 10 percent chance of a gust of 74 mph or greater. The north is more in the range of 30-.44 percent, while still maintaining a 10 percent chance of a 74mph+ gust.
The tornado threat from the Quad Cities south is 10-14 percent within 25 miles of a point. Odds of a strong EF2-EF5 tornado are listed at 10 percent.
This is what the EURO suggests for rain totals through Saturday.
The GFS for the same period.
The 3k NAM
This is a powerful storm and the central pressure may again approach 980mb in my area. That makes it a wind machine, and gusts of 45-50 should be common later Friday through Saturday morning before diminishing as the storm pulls northeast after that. Temperatures Saturday should start out around 45-50 and hold steady or slowly fall as significantly colder air wraps in behind its circulation. Scattered showers are possible, especially Saturday morning and especially north of I-80
Aside from the chaos of Friday evening, the next couple of days look very mild as the warming gets underway that could bring record warmth and strong thunderstorms later Friday. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation to get me to my goal, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
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