SETTING THE BAR HIGH...
Some beautiful fall weather paid us a visit Friday, setting the stage for what could be near record highs over the weekend. To get there we would need to see temperatures hit the upper 80s and low 90s. That's probably a bit of a stretch as most guidance is focused on peak readings in the mid to upper 80s. Here's where the bar stands for records in my local region Saturday and Sunday.
Record High Temperatures: Saturday September 30 Burlington........91 in 1994 and previous years Cedar Rapids...91 in 1994 Dubuque...........89 in 1897 Moline...............92 in 1952 Sunday October 1 Burlington........93 in 1897 Cedar Rapids...90 in 1976 and previous years Dubuque...........88 in 1976 and previous years Moline...............89 in 2006 and previous years
The late season warmth is being triggered by a building ridge of high pressure that will set up shop over the Great Lakes through mid-week. Here's the set-up at 500mb Monday. If you follow the height contours you can see them aligned out of the SW ahead of a deep western trough. That will send the unseasonal warmth directly into our backyard.
Tuesday at noon the GFS has temperature departures running 21-25 degrees above normal.
Fortunately dew points are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s, keeping the warmth tolerable but certainly more than noticeable. This is what the EURO meteogram shows for highs the next 10 days in the Quad Cities. It's got six consecutive days in the 80s including Friday. That's a feat not easily accomplished in early October.
The GFS has a similar stretch but is a few degrees warmer. The GFS usually has a warm bias but Friday the model verified better than the EURO so it just might be on to something with its toastier feel. By the way, normal highs are in the upper 60s to lows 70s at this time of year.
The warmth does end with a bang Thursday of next week when a cold front arrives. Ahead of it showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday. If the GFS is right, some of those could linger through Thursday. That's an issue too far away to worry about at this point. Just suffice it to say, that is our next chance of rain.
Confidence is also growing that the summery temperatures do come to an an end once the front passes Thursday. By next Saturday highs may hold near 60 with some upper 50s possible in the north Sunday. When you consider lows might dip into the upper 30s Sunday morning, some places could end up as much as 50 degrees colder than what we enjoy Tuesday. As you can see the Climate Prediction Center has temperature going from this October 3-7th:
To this, October 5th-9th. Change of seasons anyone?
The bottom line is October is coming in like a lamb with highs more typical of August. I would suggest enjoying the late season warmth as the march to winter is well underway. This may be the warmest weekend we see for at least the next 6 months. Ugh! Roll weather...TS
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