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The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the NW fringes of my area (roughly HWY 20 north) until 10:00 tonight

A fairly unstable air mass is in place but the tornado threat is low compared to wind and hail. Within the watch area, SPC indicates a 50 percent chance of 10 or more severe wind events and a 40 percent chance of a 75 mph gust. Additionally, odds of 10 or more severe hail events are at 40 percent and 30 percent for hailstones 2" or greater. The tornado threat is considered low as you can see below.

This is a mesoscale discussion recently issued regarding the situation from SPC

There is an enhanced severe weather risk from about HWY 30 north currently in effect. That means the risk there is a 3 on a scale of 5.

Here's a larger view of the SPC severe weather risk around the Midwest tonight.

How far south the storms make it into my area tonight is debatable with a strong cap in place across the south and less forcing. The further north you go the better the chances for storms and much needed rain. We will continue to monitor the development and progression of the situation. Roll weather...TS


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