NOTHING BUT LOVE...

1 minute ago

3 min read

Despite the fact many of us saw frost over the weekend (lows of 30-34 were common Saturday), the coldest weather of the season has made a hasty retreat. In its wake, Indian summer conditions have replaced it and the future looks "bright" right on through the weekend. The Climate Prediction Center shows above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation in its 6-10 day outlook for the period October 25th-29th. The best of both worlds!

Below, you can see the upper level ridge becoming established at 500mb this coming Sunday. This is a classic El Nino look with split flow dominating North America. The southern branch keeps appreciable moisture contained to the south and west. The northern branch running zonal over the U.S. border keeps cold air bottled up over the prairies of Canada. That leaves us high and dry with nothing but love-ly weather.

Here are the 7-day mean temperature departures through Monday the 26th of next week. That should see to it that highs remain 8-12 degrees above normal per day.

That translates to highs in the Quad Cities that are running close to 70 Tuesday through Monday of next week. Readings return to more seasonal levels after that, which still look pretty darn good considering we're entering November by then.

If the EURO is correct, there is no measurable precipitation locally for at least the next week. With many farmers still actively working in the fields, this is exactly what the doctor ordered to help bring the harvest to a conslusion.

You can see the dryness of the pattern from Iowa east by way of the 7-day rainfall departures depicted by the EURO. Nice but very boring.

We all know that once we enter November we are on borrowed time when it comes to weather like this. Sooner or later, cold air is going to break loose and stick around to some degree. For 4 months the days have been getting shorter and the suns rays less direct. The cold can't be denied, especially at northern latitudes where it's already laid a foundation. Check out the single digit temperatures the EURO depicts October 25th in central and southern Canada. The cold is lurking and just waiting for an opportunity to surge south.

Something Nick mentioned in his recent posts that could be a catalyst to cold is typhoon "Champi". As it moves into the western Pacific it is expected to turn north and finally northeast approaching Japan and the coast of China. If it remains in the Pacific and makes the turn into the North Sea towards Alaska, the remnant energy could buckle the jet sending cold air into the Midwest. A proven correlation exists with right turning Pacific typhoons, especially in fall, instigating colder weather in the Midwest 6-10 days after passing N/NE of Japan.

As you can see, the EURO AI takes a path that could make it happen. The beauty of this discovery is that it often signals the colder trend before modeling sees it. So far that's the case and now it's hurry up and wait to see if it all comes together. Of course, the key factor will be the typhoon remaining east of the China mainland.